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2018 Colts Fantasy Preview: Colts/Jaguars, Week 10

2017_1022_JAX_5504

INDIANAPOLIS — The Jacksonville Jaguars may be 3-5, but you still never want to see them on the schedule, especially against your fantasy football lineup.

This week, the Indianapolis Colts have the task of facing a unit that ranks in the top 10 against all offensive skill positions in fantasy.

Let’s take a closer look at the matchups.

*Weekly positional rankings from FantasyPros.com, based on Half-PPR scoring.

QB Andrew Luck

  • Last three weeks avg: 20.7-of-32.3 passing (63.9%), 232.0 yards, 2.3 carries, 3.3 yards, 11 total TD, 3 total TO — 29.3 FPPG
  • Last week: 22-of-31 passing (71.0%), 239 yards, 2 carries, -2 yards, 3 total TD, 0 total TO — 26.8 FP
  • FantasyPros Week 10 Position Rank: QB14
  • Jaguars vs. QBs: 4th (16.0 FPPG)

This is a tough matchup for Luck and the Colts offense, no doubt, but Luck has become matchup-proof.

Some things to consider:

» Luck has thrown a touchdown pass in 31 consecutive games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL and the eighth-longest in NFL history. He's thrown at least three touchdown passes in five consecutive games.

» There has only been one game this season (Week 3) where Luck didn’t either throw for at least 300 yards or have multiple touchdowns. In four of his eight games, he’s had both at least 300 yards and multiple touchdowns.

» Luck hasn’t been sacked since the Colts’ first drive in Week 5.

» Jaguars starting cornerback A.J. Bouye on Wednesday declared himself out for this week’s game, although that's yet to be confirmed officially. Tyler Patmon could get the start outside after rookie Quenton Meeks was injured in Week 8.

RBs Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines

Last three weeks avg:

  • Mack — 36.7 snaps (51.2%), 18.7 carries, 115.7 yards (6.2 avg), 1.7 reception (3.0 targets), 18.0 yards (9.7 avg), 4 total TD, 1 total 2PM — 22.9 FPPG
  • Hines — 25.0 snaps (35.1%), 6.3 carries, 46.3 yards (7.3 avg), 1.7 receptions (2.3 targets), 7.7 yards (3.0 avg) — 6.2 FPPG

Last week:

  • Mack — 49 snaps (62.8%), 25 carries, 132 yards (5.3 avg), 2 receptions (4 targets), 17 yards (8.5 avg), 2 total TD — 27.9 FP
  • Hines — 28 snaps (35.9%), 11 carries, 78 yards (7.1 avg), 2 receptions (2 targets), 7 yards (3.5 avg) — 9.5 FP
  • FantasyPros Week 10 Position Rank: Mack RB18, Hines RB39
  • Jaguars vs. RBs: 7th (19.8 FPPG)

If you’re a Colts fan then you know what the offense’s run game has done recently. 220 yards in back-to-back games? That’s absurd. They may have been able to do it three games in a row if they hadn’t fallen behind early in Week 6 against the New York Jets.

Since Mack returned from injury in that game, he’s been outstanding, averaging more than 130 yards of offense and scoring four touchdowns. He’s also getting a volume of touches he hasn’t seen since college, as he’s touched the ball more than 20 times in each of the last two games. With how Mack is playing behind this offensive line, you’ll need to ride the hot hand until you can’t anymore.

Hines is the primary running back behind Mack, and he’s coming off a career-high 78 yards in Week 8. He has at least 10 touches in five games this season and is always a threat catching the ball from anywhere in the lineup.

Three opposing running backs have run for at least 100 yards against Jacksonville this year — Saquon Barkley (106), Ezekiel Elliott (106) and Lamar Miller (100).

WR T.Y. Hilton

  • Last three weeks avg: (two games) 2.5 receptions (4.5 targets), 29.5 yards (11.8 avg), 2 total TD — 10.2 FPPG
  • Last week: 1 reception (5 targets), 34 yards (34.0 avg) — 3.9 FP
  • FantasyPros Week 10 Position Rank: WR21
  • Jaguars vs. WRs: 2nd (28.7 FPPG)

The Colts offensive skill position player with the toughest matchup this week is Hilton.

Jaguars All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey has shadowed opposing receivers four times this year (Odell Beckham Jr., Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins and Alshon Jeffery), which likely means it’ll happen for Hilton as well.

Ramsey shadowed Hilton in both matchups last year, in which Hilton caught four-of-10 targets for 73 yards, three first downs and one touchdown while matched up with Ramsey. Ramsey had four pass breakups and an interception.

When not lined up against Ramsey, Hilton will likely draw the likes of Patmon, D.J. Hayden or Tre Herndon, so that’s advantage: Hilton.

TEs Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron

Last three weeks avg:

  • Ebron — 33.0 snaps (47.6%), 3.3 receptions (5.7 targets), 46.3 yards, 2 total TD — 10.3 FPPG
  • Doyle — (one game) 57.0 snaps (73.1%), 6.0 receptions (7.0 targets), 70.0 yards, 1 total TD — 16.0 FPPG

Last week:

  • Ebron — 17 snaps (21.8%), 3 receptions (3 targets), 37 yards (12.3 avg), 1 total TD — 11.2 FP
  • Doyle — 57 snaps (73.1%), 6 receptions (7 targets), 70 yards (11.7 avg), 1 total TD — 16.0 FP
  • FantasyPros Week 10 Position Rank: Doyle TE11, Ebron TE16
  • Jaguars vs. TEs: 8th (9.9 FPPG)

When both Doyle and Ebron are active, Doyle plays an average of 87.9 percent of snaps compared to Ebron’s 31.0 percent, but Ebron has scored a touchdown in all three games they’ve played together. The Colts still use Ebron how they want to use him (a mismatch all over the field), he’s just not on the field as much. It keeps him a fantasy starter.

The Jaguars have done a nice job against tight ends so far this year in terms of not allowing them to wreck a game, but there have been a few outliers. In Week 5, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce caught five-of-eight targets for 100 yards. In Jacksonville’s most recent game against the Philadelphia Eagles in London, tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert both caught touchdowns.

In Week 8 against the Oakland Raiders, the Colts became the first team in NFL history to have three different tight ends score a touchdown in a single game. Their tight end group lead all NFL teams in touchdowns (12), so this matchup shouldn’t be considered a deal-breaker by any means.

K Adam Vinatieri

  • Last three weeks avg: 1.7-of-1.7 FGA (100.0%), 3.3-of-4.0 XPA (83.3%), 8.3 points
  • Last week: 2-of-2 FGA (100.0%), 4-of-4 XPA (100.0%), 10 points
  • FantasyPros Week 10 Position Rank: K7
  • Jaguars vs. Ks: 30th (10.3 FPPG)

The NFL’s all-time leading scorer had a week to rest his injured groin, and now he gets the team that allows the third-most points to kickers.

The fewest amount of fantasy points Jacksonville has given up to kickers is 6.0, and they’ve allowed four games of 10.0-plus points. Brett Maher of the Dallas Cowboys even had 21.0 points against them in Week 6.

Colts Defense/Special Teams

  • Last three weeks avg: 341.3 yards allowed, 25.0 points allowed, 1.3 sacks, 2.7 takeaways
  • Last week: 347 yards allowed, 28 points allowed, 0 sacks, 1 takeaway
  • FantasyPros Week 10 Position Rank: DST9
  • Jaguars vs. DSTs: 24th (7.9 FPPG)

This is a good matchup on paper, but you always have to be cautious of this Jacksonville offense in Indianapolis. It’s like Blake Bortles and T.J. Yeldon channel the ghosts of Jaguars past in Mark Brunell and Fred Taylor.

Regardless, we have to size this matchup for what these teams are right now. And for the Colts, that’s a brand new defense. The Jaguars have a struggling offensive line right now, which is leading to them relying more on the passing game than they’d like. What does help for them is that running back Leonard Fournette is practicing this week.

The Colts’ front seven should be able to capitalize on Jacksonville’s offensive line, and their new speed on defense should be able to hang better with the Jaguars’ running backs and Bortles when he escapes the pocket.

The Colts defense has forced a turnover in every game this year (their 16 is tied for fifth in the league), and Bortles is a turnover-prone quarterback (1.3 turnovers per game in his career). The Jags rank in the bottom half of the league in total offense (352.5 YPG), scoring (16.8 PPG), time of possession (28:55) and turnover margin (-11).

The Colts DST is a good play this week.

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