The Colts enter Week 13 controlling their own destiny in the AFC South – but they're not the only team in their division that can say that.
The reason: Four of the Colts' final six games are against the two teams chasing them in the AFC South, beginning with Sunday's matchup against the 6-5 Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium:
| Team | Record | Remaining games |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 8-3 | vs. HOU, @ JAX, @ SEA, vs. SF, vs. JAX, @ HOU |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7-4 | @ TEN, vs. IND, vs. NYJ, @ DEN, @ IND, vs. TEN |
| Houston Texans | 6-5 | @ IND, @ KC, vs. AZ, vs. LV, @ LAC, vs. IND |
If the Colts win their remaining four divisional games, they will win the AFC South. But if the Jaguars were to win out, they would win the AFC South; if the Texans win out, they'd leap ahead of the Colts in the standings.
Both of the Colts next two games – against Houston and at Jacksonville – carry significant weight in not only the Colts' playoff odds, but in their chances of winning the AFC South for the first time since 2014.
If the Colts beat the Texans in Week 13, they'd move to 9-3 while the Texans would slip three games back with five to play. It wouldn't be impossible, but that'd be a steep hill for Houston to climb within the division. A Texans win in Week 13 would move Houston to just one game back of the Colts and possibly Jaguars, who face the 1-10 Titans in Nashville in Week 13.
Per The Athletic's playoff simulator (which has the Colts at an 82 percent chance of making the playoffs), a win over Houston on Sunday bumps those odds to 93 percent, while a loss drops them to 71 percent. For a Week 13 game, a swing of double-digit percentage points on either side is significant for this part of the NFL calendar.
Right now, the Colts' playoff odds are broken into a 53 percent chance of winning the division and a 29 percent chance of being a wild card team.
If the Colts beat the Texans, their odds of winning the division jump to about 70 percent; a Colts win and a Jaguars loss (again, to the 1-10 Titans) would boost those to 80 percent.
If the Colts beat the Texans and then the Jaguars – whom they have not beaten on the road since, coincidentally (or maybe not), 2014 – their odds of making the playoffs rise to 98 percent, and their odds of winning the division bump to 88 percent. Just to play this out, wins over the Texans and Jaguars would put the Colts at 10-3, the Jaguars (assuming they beat the Titans) at 8-5 and the Texans (in this case, let's say they beat the Chiefs) at 7-6 with four games to play.
In that scenario, the Colts could eliminate the Jaguars from AFC South contention by beating them in Week 17, no matter what happens in Weeks 15 and 16 against the Seahawks and 49ers.
That's a lot of ifs, and a lot of things going right, of course.
Anyways, the split for the next two weeks for the Colts' playoff odds is massive:
- Beat HOU, JAX: 82 percent rises to 98 percent
- Beat HOU, lose to JAX: 82 percent rises to 86 percent
- Lose to HOU, beat JAX: 82 percent rises to 88 percent
- Lose to HOU, JAX: 82 percent falls to 51 percent
This is why, in the cramped visiting locker room at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, there was an acknowledgement that whatever lessons the Colts learn from their Week 12 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs need to be digested and applied quickly.
"There's no need to panic," wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. said, "but we just gotta know that our schedule doesn't get any easier from here on out."
For the Colts, though, most of this stuff – playoff odds, future opponents – isn't important. What matters inside the walls of the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center is Week 13, and Week 13 only right now.
"Division games are huge. They're different," head coach Shane Steichen said. "They hit harder, obviously, because it is huge. You want to win your division, but you've got to do it one week at a time, one day at a time to get that done, and prepare the right way."
