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2019 Colts Fantasy Preview: Colts/Jaguars, Week 17

The Indianapolis Colts and their dominant run game travel south to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday. The Colts had over 250 rushing yards the last time these teams played in November. What might this week look like for your fantasy football lineups?

mack-jaguars-run-week-11

INDIANAPOLIS — Most fantasy football leagues have concluded at this point, but if yours lingers into Week 17 or you're playing daily fantasy then this is the spot for you.

The Indianapolis Colts take on the division-rival Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday in their final game of the season. TIAA Bank Field has given the Colts problems for the last four years, but the Colts smothered the Jaguars at home in a 20-point win back in November in Week 11, so things could go differently this time around.

From a fantasy perspective, there are some things to be excited about in this matchup, so let's dig into them.

*Weekly positional rankings from FantasyPros.com, based on Half-PPR scoring. Ranks as of Friday of game week.

QB Jacoby Brissett

  • Last game: 14-of-27 passing (51.9 percent), 119 yards, 3 carries, 37 yards, 1 total TD — 13.7 FP
  • Last three games avg.: 17.0-of-32.3 passing (52.6 percent), 178.3 yards, 2.7 carries, 23.3 yards, 3 total TD — 15.0 FP
  • FantasyPros Week 17 Position Rank: QB18
  • Jaguars vs. QBs: 21st (19.0 FPPG)

In his first game back from a knee injury in Week 11, Brissett didn't have much of a fantasy performance, but the Colts did trample all over the Jaguars with the run game. However, Brissett's passing numbers have still lacked fantasy pop since then. He's passed for four total touchdowns and has thrown for 200 yards just twice since Week 11 and less than 150 yards in three of the six games. If you need one last hurrah for the season this week, you may want to look elsewhere as the Colts seem likely to run the ball heavily against the Jaguars on Sunday.

If you want to take a flier on Brissett having a productive performance, then know that since Week 12 opposing quarterbacks are averaging 314.0 yards of offense and 1.8 touchdowns and have only turned the ball over four times against the Jaguars. They are also tied for 20th in interceptions (10) and tied for 27th in opponent passing yards per attempt (8.0).

Week 11 statline: 15-of-24 (62.5 percent) for 148 yards (6.2 YPA), 1 pass TD, 1 INT, 2 carries for 12 yards (6.0 avg.), 1 rush TD — 16.2 FP

RB Marlon Mack

  • Last game: 16 carries, 95 yards (5.9 avg.), 2 receptions (2 targets), 6 yards (3.0 avg.), 1 total TD — 17.1 FP
  • Last three games avg.: 13.3 carries, 50.7 yards (3.5 avg.), 0.7 receptions (0.7 targets), 2.0 yards (3.0 avg.), 2 total TD — 9.6 FP
  • FantasyPros Week 17 Position Rank: RB10
  • Jaguars vs. RBs: 31st (24.8 FPPG)

For the second week in a row, Mack is a must-start. He ran for more than 100 yards in just over two quarters of action against Jacksonville in Week 11, and he is fresh off of a 95-yard, one-touchdown game against the Carolina Panthers last week.

The Jaguars rank 28th against the run (139.8 YPG), 31st in opponent rushing yards per carry (5.1), 31st in opponent rushing touchdowns (21), and they're tied for 29th and 32nd respectively in run plays of 20-plus (14) and 40-plus yards (six) allowed. Twelve opposing running backs have accumulated at least 80 yards of offense against them, including six 100-yard rushers, and they've surrendered 20 touchdowns to the position. Sixteen running backs have reached at least 10 fantasy points against them.

Week 11 statline: 14 carries for 109 yards (7.8 avg.), 1 rush TD — 16.9 FP

WR T.Y. Hilton

  • Last week: 3 receptions (4 targets), 26 yards (8.7 avg.) — 4.1 FP
  • Last three weeks avg.: 3.3 receptions (6.3 targets), 23.0 yards (6.9 avg.) — 4.0 FP
  • FantasyPros Week 17 Position Rank: WR29
  • Jaguars vs. WRs: 13th (20.5 FPPG)

Unfortunately, the impact that Hilton has had in his return to the lineup from quad and calf injuries earlier in the year has not resulted in much on the stat sheets for fantasy owners. Since Week 8, he is averaging 3.0 catches for 30.8 yards per game and hasn't been in the end zone since Week 7. The frustrating thing for fantasy owners is that Hilton could have a 200-yard game literally any week and you wouldn't necessarily have to see it coming.

For those that need coaxing into starting The Ghost this week, Jacksonville ranks 20th in pass defense (242.3 YPG) and is 26th in pass plays of 20-plus (58) and 40-plus yards (12) allowed. Ten opposing receivers have had at least 80 yards against the Jaguars, but they've allowed just 10 touchdowns to the position.

Week 11 statline: DNP (calf)

TE Jack Doyle

  • Last week: 2 receptions (4 targets), 17 yards (8.5 avg.) — 2.7 FP
  • Last three weeks avg.: 2.0 receptions (5.0 targets), 21.7 yards (10.8 avg.) — 3.2 FP
  • FantasyPros Week 17 Position Rank: TE12
  • Jaguars vs. TEs: 23rd (8.1 FPPG)

There have been some quality fantasy performances from tight ends against Jacksonville this year, including Darren Waller and Austin Hooper combining for 15 catches for 204 yards in the last two weeks. The week before that, Los Angeles Chargers tight ends Hunter Henry and Virgil Green both scored against the Jaguars. Doyle is due for a solid performance after recording zero touchdowns and no more than 27 yards in a game over the last three contests. This is a matchup that could yield results for the dependable veteran.

Week 11 statline: 0 targets — 0.0 FP

Colts Defense/Special Teams

  • Last week: 286 yards allowed, 6 points allowed, 5 sacks, 3 takeaways, 2 return touchdowns
  • Last three weeks avg.: 417.3 yards allowed, 26.0 points allowed, 6 total sacks, 7 total takeaways, 3 total return touchdowns
  • FantasyPros Week 17 Position Rank: DST11
  • Jaguars vs. DSTs: 24th (8.3 FPPG)

As the saying goes in the NFL: "You're only as good as your last game." If that's the case for the Colts' DST then they're a tremendous option this week. Both the defense and special teams dominated against a rookie quarterback last week in the Panthers' Will Grier, and they face another this week in Gardner Minshew II, although the latter has much more playing experience this year.

The Jaguars have allowed at least one sack in all but one game this season, and they've had 13 games allowing multiple sacks, including each of their last 12 games. This is set up to be a strong performance by the Colts' defenders to close out the season. And who knows? Maybe reigning AFC Special Teams Player of the Week, Nyheim Hines, takes back another punt for a touchdown.

Week 11 statline: 308 yards allowed (279 passing and 29 rushing), 13 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 takeaway, 1 two-point return

INJURIES

Colts:

  • OUT — DT/DE Denico Autry (concussion), RB Jordan Wilkins (knee), CB Quincy Wilson (shoulder)
  • DOUBTFUL — CB Kenny Moore II (ankle), (S Khari Willis (shoulder)
  • QUESTIONABLE — DE Al-Quadin Muhammad (groin)

Jaguars:

  • OUT — WR Michael Walker (hamstring)
  • DOUBTFUL — N/A
  • QUESTIONABLE — LB Dakota Allen (hamstring), CB A.J. Bouye (wrist), RB Leonard Fournette (neck), QB Gardner Minshew II (shoulder), TE Nick O'Leary (shoulder), WR Dede Westbrook (neck/shoulder)

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