Colts' NFL playoffs standings, odds, scenarios, tiebreakers: Week 14 game at Jaguars pivotal in AFC South race

The Colts have lost three of their last four games, and what was once a 2.5-game lead in the AFC South has vanished entering Week 14.

But: The Colts, with five games left, still are fully in control of their ability to win the AFC South for the first time since 2014. To continue to control their divisional destiny, though, the Colts must beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday at EverBank Stadium, a venue where they have not won since, also, 2014.

Here's how things shake out for the Colts heading into Week 14:

AFC Standings

The tiebreakers are in there just more for understanding why teams are seeded where right now – in reality, you don't worry about those until after Christmas at the earliest.

Playoff odds

Using The Athletic's model, the Colts enter Week 14 with a 68 percent chance of making the playoffs, the lowest the model has had the Colts since Week 3 (when preseason projections were still a large factor in determining a percentage). Within the AFC South, the odds to make the playoffs are:

• Jaguars: 84% (43% to win division)
• Colts: 68% (34% to win division)
• Texans: 59% (23% to win division)

Week 14 impact

If the Colts beat the Jaguars:

• Colts' odds to make playoffs rise to 85%, odds to win AFC South rise to 55%
• Jaguars' odds to make playoffs drop to 71%, odds to win AFC South drop to 18%

If the Jaguars beat the Colts:

• Colts' odds to make the playoffs drop to 50%, odds to win AFC South drop to 14%
• Jaguars' odds to make playoffs rise to 96%, odds to win AFC South rise to 67%

Texans or Chiefs?

Sunday night's Texans-Chiefs game at Arrowhead is massive for the AFC playoff picture – a Kansas City loss drops the three-time defending AFC champs to just an 11 percent chance of making the postseason.

For the Colts' purposes though (and this is all with a Colts win over the Jaguars), a Texans win over the Chiefs would slightly raise the Colts' playoff odds to 86 percent, but would drop their odds of winning the AFC South to 45 percent. A Chiefs win would actually lower the Colts' overall playoff odds to 84 percent – since Kansas City has a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts – but would raise the Colts' odds of winning the AFC South from 55 percent to 60 percent.

The Colts' path to the playoffs

The cleanest path for the Colts is to win their remaining three AFC South games: At Jacksonville (Week 14), vs. Jacksonville (Week 17) and at Houston (Week 17). Even if the Colts were to lose to the Seattle Seahawks (Week 15) and San Francisco 49ers (Week 16), and even if the Texans and Jaguars won their remaining games, the Colts would still win the division with an 11-6 record.

Every tiebreaker would go the Colts' way in this scenario: They'd own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Jaguars, and even though they'd split the season series with Houston, they'd have the tiebreaker with a 5-1 record against the AFC South versus Houston being 4-2 against the AFC South.

There are other paths to winning the division – beyond, of course, going 5-0 down the stretch – but they involve convoluted tiebreakers we don't need to get into until, again, after Christmas.

Remaining AFC South schedules