Reggie Wayne doesn't view deep, contested throws to Alec Pierce as 50/50 propositions.
"He has some attributes that a lot of people don't have," Wayne, who's entering his fifth season as the Colts' wide receivers coach, said last year. "... If you give him an opportunity, he'll high-point the ball and he'll be able to bring it in nine times out of 10."
That specific skill Pierce has – turning 50/50 balls into 90/10 propositions for the Colts' offense – allowed him to lead the NFL in yards per reception in 2024 (22.3) and 2025 (21.3). It earned him a new contract with the Colts, one which will keep him in Indianapolis for the long term.
And in today's NFL, where defenses are maniacal about preventing downfield passes from even being attempted – let alone completed – Pierce's skillset carries remarkable value.
Case in point: In 2025, teams averaged 120 pass attempts of 15 or more air yards, which was the lowest yearly average since 2008:
There are several reasons behind this decline, but the most obvious one – and the reason why we're bringing this up – is modern defenses are designed to prevent offenses from even attempting to push the ball downfield. And not every offense is equipped to throw deep passes in a league dominated by the sort of camouflaged, rotating two-high safety coverages that aim to put a lid on downfield passing attacks.
"Talk to offensive coordinators, they're trying to find as many of those as possible," ESPN's Dan Graziano said on last week's episode of The Colts Show podcast. "Talk to defensive coordinators, they're obsessed with stopping them. that's what the league is about right now, the ability to score and score quickly."
The league has trended this direction for a while now. Pierce, in 2024, became the first player to average over 21 yards per catch on 35 or more catches since 2010; in 2025, he became the first player to have consecutive seasons with 35+ catches and 21+ yards per reception since Flipper Anderson in 1989 and 1990.
Explosive plays just might be the most valuable commodity an offense can tap into. But, again, not every offense is set to mine explosive plays by chucking the ball downfield in the way the Colts are.
In 2025, no player was targeted on passes that traveled at least 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage more than Pierce, who had 61 of them thrown his way. He caught 29 of those passes (behind Offensive Player of the Year winner Puka Nacua and finalist Jaxon Smith-Njigba) for 784 yards (behind Smith-Njigba and Nacua) for six touchdowns (behind only Chris Olave and Tee Higgins, who each had seven).
Pierce also drew five pass interference flags on the passes that fell incomplete. Meaning: When the Colts pushed the ball to Pierce, they picked up an explosive (15+ yard) gain 56 percent of the time. Maybe it's not really 90/10, but those totals don't include overthrows or uncatchable passes out of bounds. Realistically: If a quarterback gives Pierce a chance to make a play, he's significantly more likely than not to make it or, at the least, draw a chain-moving pass interference flag.
A dozen of Pierce's receptions on these throws counted as contested catches, per Pro Football Focus, which put him behind only Nacua in that category.
If Pierce's ability to win downfield is the main course, he also has a few side dishes to his game that elevate the entire plate, so to speak.
First: He doesn't come off the field. Pierce played over 90 percent of the Colts' offensive snaps in eight of the 15 games in which he played this season. The only times he dropped below an 80 percent snap share were in blowout wins in Weeks 1 and 3, and when he was ejected in the second half of the Colts' season finale (remember that? Wild times).
In 2025, about 42 percent of Pierce's routes would fall into the "deep" category – corner, go and post – per Pro Football Focus. The point is, he's running a lot, whether the ball's going to him or not.
And because defenses have to account for Pierce's ability to win downfield, they have to adjust coverages to roll toward his side (if they don't, it's bombs away). When that happens, defenses usually have to play simpler. And that can lead to the Colts targeting the middle of the field with guys who are particularly adept at controlling things in between the numbers, highlighted by tight end Tyler Warren; nearly two-thirds of Warren's 76 receptions came between the numbers, per Pro Football Focus.
Also, Pierce is a physical, willing blocker in the run game:
It all adds up to Pierce being, as general manager Chris Ballard said earlier this year, a "priority" for the Colts to retain. He's a true downfield threat, the kind of player who can create explosives and unlock different doors for an offense.
Plenty of teams would love to have a player like Alec Pierce. The Colts don't just have a player like him.
They still have Alec Pierce.
