The Colts both have not helped themselves and have not got any help over the last month and a half.
Since coming out of their bye week with an 8-2 record, the Colts have lost five consecutive games, including Monday night's 48-27 loss to the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Meanwhile, just about every result that could've helped the Colts along the way has gone against them, including this weekend.
The Jacksonville Jaguars rolled into Denver and thumped the AFC No. 1 seed Broncos, 34-20. The Los Angeles Chargers took a flamethrower to a struggling Dallas Cowboys defense in a 34-17 win. And in the only game that was close – surprisingly enough – the Houston Texans still out-lasted the Las Vegas Raiders, 23-21.
Had one of those results flipped from a Jaguars/Chargers/Texans win to a loss, the Colts would've kicked off on Monday night in control of their own playoff destiny. Even in losing, the Colts' playoff odds would've been in better shape with, say, a Chargers or Texans defeat.
The Colts, at 8-7, cannot catch the Jaguars (11-4) in the AFC South or the Chargers (11-4) in the AFC wild card standings. The Texans (10-5) are the only team the Colts could potentially jump ahead of in the AFC playoff standings, but it'll require a lot to happen.
And so far, as pointed out here, since Week 12, every result the Colts needed to break in their favor has broke against them. The Chargers have beat the Raiders, Eagles, Chiefs and Cowboys; the Texans have beat the Bills, Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals and Raiders; the Jaguars have beat the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, Jets and Broncos.
Three games in there stand as massive results in the AFC playoff picture (Chargers-Eagles, Texans-Bills, Jaguars-Broncos). If one of those results is reversed, the Colts' playoff odds would be significantly increased.
Anyways, the Colts are not currently eliminated from the playoffs, but their path to the postseason is extremely narrow at this point. The Athletic gives the Colts a 1 percent chance of reaching the playoffs.
The only way the Colts will make the playoffs is if they win their final two games against the Jaguars and Texans, and the Texans lose on Saturday night to the Chargers, which would then push the tiebreaker between theoretical 10-7 Colts and 10-7 Texans teams to the strength of victory tiebreaker.
Even if the Colts win out and the Texans lose out, the Colts' playoff odds would only be at 47 percent, per The Athletic. That's how narrow this path is, and it'll take a ridiculous amount of scoreboard watching:
None of this matters if the Texans beat the Chargers on Saturday, the Colts lose to the Jaguars on Sunday or a third scenario, in which the following results would give Houston the strength of victory tiebreaker:
- Texans loss
- Colts win
- Ravens win
- Bills win
- Chiefs win
- 49ers win
- Falcons loss
- Dolphins loss
The highest the Colts' playoff odds could be going into Week 18 would be if the following results happened:
- Chargers over Texans (+2%)
- Colts over Jaguars (+5%)
- Broncos over Chiefs (+2%)
- Bears over 49ers (+4%)
- Dolphins over Buccaneers (+2%)
- Falcons over Rams (+2%)
- Packers over Ravens (+1%)
- Eagles over Bills (+1%)
If those results happen, the Colts vs. Texans game in Week 18 would be a win-and-in for both teams. However, let's say the 49ers, Bills and Buccaneers all win in Week 17. If those results occurred, the Colts' odds to make the playoffs would drop to 52 percent, even with a win over the Texans, and it would require a combination of at least two (and in a few cases, three) of the following to happen in Week 18:
- Raiders over Chiefs
- Steelers over Ravens
- Dolphins over Patriots
- Seahawks over 49ers
- Falcons over Saints
- Jets over Bills
Basically, if the Texans lose on Saturday, not only do the Colts need to win on Sunday, but they'll need the teams they beat the Texans did not (the Dolphins, Broncos and Falcons) to win, while the Colts will need the teams the Texans beat but they did not (the Ravens, 49ers, Bills and Chiefs).
We'll cross that bridge if and when we get there.
