The Colts went from a crisp opening possession to a 31-13 halftime deficit last weekend for a litany of reasons, ones which touched all three phases.
But for Shane Steichen, Daniel Jones and the Colts' offense, one issue from Week 1 has risen to the top of the list of focuses heading into Kansas City.
After their curtain-lifting scoring drive, the Colts' offense had nine plays on first down in the rest of the second half. Four of those resulted in a loss of yardage (three tackles for a loss on Jonathan Taylor runs, one Jones sack), another resulted in a turnover (when Baltimore Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey dislodged the ball from Taylor's grasp on a screen), one resulted in a two-yard gain and another an incompletion. The only play that gained successful yardage came on a first-and-10 at the Ravens' 15-yard line, following Arden Key's strip-sack of Lamar Jackson, when Taylor rumbled for a 10-yard gain.
Perhaps not coincidentally, the Colts' only other score of the first half came two plays after Taylor's 10-yard rush.
"You got to stay ahead of the sticks – is a big thing in every game, but don't beat yourself in these third-and-long situations, second-and-long situations," Steichen said. "We got to be really good, be efficient on first down, on early downs to stay out of those situations."
The impact of negative or inefficient yardage on first down has a cascading effect. In 2025, teams averaged a success rate of 63.7 percent on second and six or fewer; on second and seven or more, that dropped to 44.2 percent, per Pro Football Focus. And if you don't have a successful play on second and long, your odds of picking up a first down on third and long are even worse: On third and seven or more last year, offenses averaged a success rate of just 24.9 percent, more than half the average success rate on third and 1-6 of 52.3 percent.
It's much harder to sustain drives, and ultimately score points, when you can't pick up at least four yards on first down. Think about it this way: When an offense has an efficient gain on first down, they can dictate things on the next play. If they gain three or fewer yards, it's often the defense that's dictating things.
"Any time we can stay ahead of the chains, we can get in advantageous situations for us," Jones said.
Between Weeks 1-13 of the 2025 season, the Colts led the NFL on first down in yards per play (7.0) and EPA per play (+.182) and were second in first down success rate (55.2 percent). The requirement here for the Colts isn't necessarily to get back to their top-of-the-league success on first down, but in early-season games against the Ravens, Chiefs and Houston Texans, their ability to be consistently efficient on first and 10 will loom large.
"A big thing in every game – don't beat yourself in these third-and-long situations, second-and-long situations," offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. "So, we got to be really good, be efficient on first down, on early downs to stay out of those situations."
The good news for the Colts is this group has had success on first down before. The challenge, now, is creating those tone-settling plays – and avoiding negative ones – against some of the NFL's top defenses.
