INDIANAPOLIS --- The Colts.com fantasy crew has been doing very well giving out fantasy advice through the first month of the season, and we're looking to keep our momentum going week 5.
For starters, we did Start 'Em/Sit 'Em in week 1 and week 3, with each of us only picking one player each to start and sit. We posted an 83% accuracy rate, hitting on 10 of our 12 picks.
START 'EM (15+ points for QBs, 10+ for other positions)
Steve Andress: Jay Cutler (CHI QB), week 1: 19 points
Jim Sorgi: Marqise Lee (JAX WR), week 1: 12 points in PPR leagues
Kevin Bowen: Pierre Garcon (WAS WR), week 3: 19 points in standard, 30 points in PPR
Jim Sorgi: Alshon Jeffery (CHI WR), week 3: 11 points in standard, 19 points in PPR
Steve Andress: Knile Davis (KC RB), week 3: 17 points in standard & PPR
SIT 'EM (less than 15 points for QBs, less than 10 points for other positions)
Kevin Bowen: Bishop Sankey (TEN RB), week 1: 2 points
Jim Sorgi: Falcons Defense, week 1: 4 points
Kevin Bowen: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI WR), week 3: 1 point in standard, 4 points in PPR
Jim Sorgi: Montee Ball (DEN RB), week 3: 1 points in standard, 3 in PPR
Steve Andress: Seahawks Defense, week 3: 5 points
After week 1, we also told you to sell high on Saints RB Mark Ingram (now injured), keep Ravens WR Steve Smith Sr. (#3 WR in standard scoring), sell high on Cardinals QB Carson Palmer (now injured), and keep Bears QB Jay Cutler (#5 QB, drafted outside top 10 QBs).
Before the season, Jim Sorgi told you Julio Jones and Roddy White would be comeback players of the year in 2014 in fantasy. On Colts Up Close (airing Saturday nights on WISH-TV 8 at 11:35, with a weekly fantasy football segment), Sorgi also said Randall Cobb would have a breakout season. He currently leads the league in touchdown catches.
And as for our preseason sleepers, I took all the ridicule in the preseason and am now cashing in on telling you to draft Lamar Miller (two touchdowns last week, 100 yards the week before that). And Kevin Bowen said you better own Knile Davis and stash him on your roster (Jamaal Charles owners would agree).
Suffice it to say, we're feeling really confident about our Week 5 picks for Start 'Em and Sit 'Em:
WEEK 5 START 'EM
Steve Andress: Andre Ellington (ARI RB), at Denver --- The only big issue with Ellington this year is he hasn't scored a touchdown yet, and Dwyer is out of the goalline picture now in Arizona. Ellington has posted 4.5 yards per carry, despite a nagging foot issue and has added value in PPR leagues, with 9 receptions on the season. At face value, a trip to Denver looks tough, but the Broncos have surrendered three rushing TDs the last two games and 180 yards on the ground. Ellington should be a top-12 RB in week 5.
Kevin Bowen: Ben Tate (CLE RB), at Tennessee --- Tate returns from injury, and the reports are he will take back his starting role. It's a good match-up too, against a Titans defense that is 21st against opposing fantasy RBs, having given up four touchdowns in the past three weeks to backs and 424 yards on the ground in those games.
Jim Sorgi: Philip Rivers (SD QB), vs. New York Jets --- Rivers last three games: 24 points (vs. Seattle), 18 points (@ Buffalo), 27 points (vs. Jacksonville). The Jets are 28th against opposing fantasy quarterbacks. Start Rivers.
WEEK 5 SIT 'EM
Steve Andress: Julian Edelman (NE WR), vs. Cincinnati --- He was solid through the first three weeks of the season, and then the Patriots stunk it up at Kansas City. The Bengals defense has been vicious. I'm less concerned about Edelman being able to get open than I am about Tom Brady having time to throw it to him. Of course, it's in New England on Sunday Night Football, and the Patriots are a rare home underdog...which means they will probably score 50. But against a red hot Bengals defense coming off a bye, I can't risk starting Edelman. He's a flex at best, and I'd rather start guys like T.Y. Hilton, Golden Tate, Brian Quick, and Andrew Hawkins this week.
Kevin Bowen: Jets Defense, at San Diego --- Benching the Jets defense for the same reason we're starting Philip Rivers
Jim Sorgi: Tom Brady (NE QB), vs. Cincinnati --- We're benching Tom Brady?! Gotta love fantasy football...again, for many of the same reasons Steve outlined above. There are protection issues. Here are his first four games in terms of fantasy production: 9 points, 9 points, 13 points, 6 points. Brady is not only outside the top-12 QBs this week, but he's probably outside the top-20. The offense has been such a struggle in New England, you might want to go with my preseason super deep sleeper pick this week: Jags QB Blake Bortles vs. Pittsburgh.
COLTS WEEK 5 START 'EM
Andrew Luck --- I know this may seem obvious, but we're mentioning Luck because his elite fantasy numbers are here to stay, in our opinion. He is in the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks now with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers (and he's only in his third year). If you have him in a keeper league, never let him go. If you don't have him, go get him. As for week 5, the Ravens may only allow 15 points per game, but Luck has been too good to bench. Andy Dalton put up 18 fantasy points on the Ravens, and Brian Hoyer posted 15 on Baltimore. Don't overthink Luck. Did we mention he's really good?