The Colts enter Week 3 having lost nine consecutive games and their last five meetings with the Houston Texans.
But more important than any of that history – most of which doesn't apply to the 2026 version of the Colts – is the reality of this game. The Colts are 0-2. So are the Texans.
And that means the losing team on Sunday will incredibly difficult challenge ahead: Not only will they be 0-3, but they'll be 0-1 in the AFC South – and every loss will be against an AFC opponent.
"It's definitely mandatory to win this weekend," wide receiver Josh Downs said. "Gotta win the division and beat those type of opponents, so I feel like it speaks for itself in that."
Here are a handful of things to watch when Sunday's game kicks off at 1 p.m. at Lucas Oil Stadium:
Will tackling improve?
Defensively, the Colts' focus this week has been on fixing several issues that've cropped up over the first two weeks of the season, chief among them tackling: The Colts enter Week 3 having missed 28 tackles, per Pro Football Focus, the second-highest total in the NFL.
That's not the only point of emphasis for Lou Anarumo's group, but it's one that head coach Shane Steichen pointed to as the main issue plaguing a defense that struggled to contain the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs to begin the season.
"We've got to tackle better," Steichen said. "I think we had a ton of missed tackles last week, last couple weeks, and those are leading to explosive plays, especially in the run game. And then we've got to be great on the back end in coverage. I mean, it's all part of it. All ties in together. The rush and coverage work together, and we got to get that stuff cleaned up moving forward so we're not giving up those big plays and those yards."
While Texans running back David Montgomery managed just 10 yards on six carries in Houston's Week 2 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, he's a shifty, powerful back known for grinding out extra yardage after contact. Those yards can be the difference between an inefficient rush (three or fewer yards on first down, for example) or an efficient rush (four or more yards on first down), which can ultimately lead to the difference between a makable third down for Houston or an opportunity for Anarumo to throw an exotic blitz at Stroud and the Texans' pass protection.
What is the Texans' offense without Nico Collins?
We'll see if Collins, who missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury and did not participate in practice Wednesday or Thursday, is able to suit up on Sunday.
It's probably not this reductive, but Houston scored 31 points with Collins in Week 1 (against the Buffalo Bills) and six points without Collins in Week 2 (against the Bengals). Montgomery and running back Woody Marks combined for 102 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries in Week 1; in Week 2, they combined for 18 yards on 14 carries.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud, meanwhile, attempted a career high 55 passes in Week 2 against the Bengals and had just a 74.3 passer rating. Houston's offense, needless to say, was completely out of whack in Week 2.
Whether Collins plays or not on Sunday, though, the Colts are expecting the Texans' offense to be nowhere near as anemic as it was last weekend. Plus, this is a defense with its own issues to fix: The Colts enter Week 3 last in the NFL in yards allowed per game, yards allowed per play and points allowed per game.
Granted, the Colts have those stats after facing Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, but that's hardly an excuse you'll hear around 56th Street.
"Everybody's got good players. Those two guys are, as you mentioned, in my opinion, first-ballot Hall of Famers," Anarumo said. "But still no excuse. We have to go out there and perform at a better level, and in crunch time, make sure we make the plays that need to be made. And make the plays that are there to be made. I think there's plenty of plays on Sunday night where our players, myself – and it starts with me obviously, but all of us together, we're in this as a collective unit. Not just the players. It's not the coaches. It's us together, and I think that we are all taking that collective approach to improve. Each meeting, each practice, certainly each play in every game. So that's our approach, and that's how we'll continue to go at this thing."
How will the Colts handle Houston's defense?
The Texans' defense could tell itself a similar story to the Colts, in that they enter Week 3 allowing 28 points per game (T-26th) and 6.1 yards per play (27th) after facing Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills and Joe Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals. Those results certainly do not match preseason expectations for the Texans, who many national analysts pegged as not just having a great defense, but a defense that could be the best of its generation.
Two games against top-tier quarterbacks, then, did not change how the Colts view Houston's defense.
"All three levels they've got playmakers," quarterback Daniel Jones said. "They can get after the passer. They've got good DBs, good linebackers. So, it'll be a good challenge for us, but confident in our group."
Jones was not sacked in the Colts' Week 2 loss to the Chiefs, but the challenge in Week 3 will be different. Kansas City's focus is generating pressure on exotic blitzes, while Houston is able to crush the pocket with a four-man rush headlined by defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
While the Chiefs and Texans' strategies are different, though, the Colts' plan remains the same: Be efficient on early downs and don't get pinned into second- or third-and-long situations.
"They're really good when they can pin their ears back and rush," Jones said. "I think yeah, staying ahead of the chains, staying on schedule, being able to run the ball – and I think we did that well last week, and continue to try to emphasize that."
Another challenge for the Colts will be stretching the field without speedy wide receivers Alec Pierce (heel) and Ashton Dulin (ankle) against a talented, cohesive Houston secondary. Darius Slayton was signed earlier this week to add downfield juice to the Colts' offense – 18 of his 22 career touchdown receptions went for 20 or more yards – but how quickly he can be deployed in Sunday's gameplan remains to be seen.
