The clearest way to look at Sunday's Colts-Jaguars game is through the lens of two teams that've been heading in opposite directions over the last month.
Since Week 10, the Jaguars have won six consecutive games. Several of those wins have been in remarkably impressive fashion: There was a 35-6 dismantling of the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11; a 36-19 win over the Colts in Week 14 that gave Jacksonville control of the AFC South; and a 34-20 road win over the Denver Broncos in Week 16 that served as a wakeup call to anyone who might've been sleeping on the Jaguars at this point.
The Colts, meanwhile, have not won a game played in the United States since before Halloween. After their dramatic Week 10 win over the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin and an ensuing bye week, the Colts have lost five consecutive games. They've gone from having a banged-up Daniel Jones behind center to losing their starting quarterback to a torn Achilles', then signing 44-year-old Philip Rivers to steady the season, only to have their defense get "dominated" on Monday Night Football a few days ago.
Instead of a Week 17 showdown that could determine the winner of the AFC South, the Colts could be eliminated or the Jaguars could clinch before kickoff. If the Houston Texans lose to the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday afternoon, the Jaguars would be crowned AFC South champions; if the Texans win, the Colts will be eliminated from the playoffs.
But the Colts have not approached Week 17 with much thought to if their playoff chances will still be greater than zero come Sunday. What happens between the Texans and Chargers is out of their control.
"There is a chance," head coach Shane Steichen said. "I know they're slim, but we've got to go out and control what we can control, and that's winning a football game on Sunday."
Rivers will start regardless of the outcome of that Texans-Chargers game, as he's gone through practice this week with the Colts' first-team offense, preparing as if the stakes of Sunday's game will matter to the AFC playoff picture. No one inside the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center is allowing their mind to drift to what-if scenarios while preparing to face the surging Jaguars.
"Anything can happen across the league," Rivers said. "I think our focus, and what I've seemed to gather just from the locker room – obviously, I haven't been here long, is we need to just win a football game. I think keep it as simple as that. We get an opportunity. The opportunities are dwindling. Go out and execute and put a complete game together in all phases and win a game. Obviously, we know all the other scenarios out there, but all the scenarios out there include us winning, and that's the only one we can control. So I think that'll be best for us to just keep that simple focus right there."
As for matching up with the Jaguars, the Colts will need to find solutions defensively against a Jacksonville offense that, over its six-game winning streak, has scored a touchdown on 34.7 percent of its possessions, which stands as the fourth-highest rate in the NFL since Week 11. Those scores have been fueled by the Jaguars generating an explosive gain on nearly one in every five pass attempts, good for fourth-best in the NFL over the last six weeks.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had a passer rating north of 105 in each of his last four games, a stretch in which he's thrown for 12 touchdowns against zero interceptions. For a Colts defense coming off allowing a five-touchdown game from San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, finding solutions on Sunday will be at a premium.
One of those solutions could be the return of cornerback Sauce Gardner, who is tracking to return and play for the first time since Week 13.
Offensively, while what Rivers did against the 49ers was impressive, the Colts are looking for ways to get running back Jonathan Taylor rolling again. Over the last five weeks, Taylor is averaging 70 yards on 20 rushing attempts per game and has just two total touchdowns; from Weeks 1-10, Taylor averaged 114 rushing yards on 19 attempts per game with 17 total touchdowns.
Still, the 74 yards Taylor churned out in Week 14 against the Jaguars are the most any single player has had against Jacksonville this season. He's one of three running backs to have at least 60 rushing yards against the Jaguars in 2025, along with Houston's Woody Marks (63, Week 10) and Tennessee's Tony Pollard (60, Week 13).
"It's something we're really trying to dive deep into as a staff and see if we can't put the guys in a better position to go have that success, and shoot, each one of them is trying to do their job just a little bit better, the same way we are," offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. "So it's a group, collective effort, 11 of those guys on the field and us coaching staff, try to go get back to running the ball a little bit better. And we can. We have the guys that are capable. I know JT is excited for his opportunity to get a few more carries this week, see what we can do."
