The numbers, in this case, don't lie – except about one thing.
The Colts are 6-1 with a plus-92 point differential though seven games. That gives the Colts, entering Week 8, the best record in the NFL and by far the best point differential in the league (the Detroit Lions are second with a plus-64).
The Tennessee Titans, meanwhile, will arrive at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday 1-6 with a minus-96 point differential. Only the winless New York Jets have a worse record; the next-lowest point differential is the Las Vegas Raiders at minus-77.
Whether you're looking at win/loss records or the nearly 200-point gap between the Colts' differential and that of the Titans, you'll probably see one of the NFL's more on-paper lopsided matchups of Week 8.
Only that's where the numbers, in a way, do lie: None of this guarantees a Colts win on Sunday.
"Every week in this league is a challenge," head coach Shane Steichen said. "I don't care who you're playing, where you're playing. Everyone in this league is good. And like I said, it's a division opponent at home, that we've got to be ready for."
NFL teams slip on metaphorical banana peels every season. This year, the Green Bay Packers – whose 4-1-1 record is second in the NFL behind the Colts – lost in Week 3 to the 2-5 Cleveland Browns. It may not have looked like an outlier at the time, but the Raiders (2-5) took out the now AFC East-leading New England Patriots (5-2) in Week 1.
The lesson there is one Steichen and Colts team leaders have emphasized this week: Take every NFL team seriously, because any NFL team can win regardless of what the numbers may say.
"I think all these guys are mature enough and know the nature of the NFL. Everybody's good," quarterback Daniel Jones said. "Every team's got good players, good coaches. Week in and week out, you have to prepare and play well to win. So, I think guys understand that, and have that mindset throughout the week."
The Titans, though, aren't just a 1-6 team. They fired head coach Brian Callahan last week, replacing him with ex-San Diego Chargers head coach Mike McCoy on an interim basis. They're depleted due to injuries, with cornerback L'Jarius Sneed going on injured reserve this week while wide receiver Calvin Ridley and defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons are both nursing hamstring injuries that may keep them out for Sunday's game.
Still: The lone game Tennessee won this year may be a lesson here. The Arizona Cardinals nearly went up 28-6 in the fourth quarter, but running back Emari Demercado dropped the ball before he crossed the goal line on what would've been a 72-yard touchdown. From there, quarterback Cam Ward hit Ridley for a 47-yard gain that sparked a touchdown, cutting the score to 21-12. A few wild bounces went the Titans' way later in the fourth quarter, resulting in wide receiver Tyler Lockett (who was released earlier this month) falling on a fumble in the end zone, making it 21-19 Cardinals.
And when the Cardinals couldn't put a four-minute drive together on their ensuing possession, Ward got the Titans into field goal range with a 38-yard completion to Ridley; kicker Joey Slye connected from 29 yards as time expired to give Tennessee a 22-21 win.
"I think the parity in the league is a lot tighter than I would think the average viewer really understands," linebacker Zaire Franklin said. "You got to understand like for example, we played – (the Chargers) were down (to their) third, fourth tackle last week, but he's still an NFL player. So, he's still going to win. He's still going to make plays. So, regardless of what the perception (is) or how he came into the league, we all were underrated at some point. Everybody's capable. Everybody's willing to – able to make a play. So we got to make sure we're locked in."
Another thing Colts players have said they understand is this: Because of their 6-1 record, the target on their collective backs is growing. The Colts are not some fun surprise; they're a legitimately good team, and that means they expect to get their opponents' best effort each week. Building on that, it means the Colts – regardless of the record of those opponents – need to match that effort.
"Every week in this league is a new challenge – a division opponent at home," Steichen said. "Obviously, within the division, we know them, they know us. They know our tendencies. We've got to come ready to go. I mean, this is a good football team. We've got them at home. A division opponent, like I said. We've got to be all over it this week."
