Let's start here with a chart.
During the Colts' four-game losing streak, they've faced four top-10 defenses in rushing success rate allowed:
| Week | Opponent | Rushing success rate allowed | Jonathan Taylor rushing yards | Jonathan Taylor yards per carry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | 28.9% (9th) | 58 | 3.6 |
| 13 | Houston Texans | 27.9% (7th) | 85 | 4.0 |
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 24.9% (2nd) | 74 | 3.5 |
| 15 | Seattle Seahawks | 26.3% (4th) | 87 | 3.5 |
Taylor is averaging 3.7 yards per rush over the last four weeks after averaging 6.0 yards per rush in Weeks 1-10; the Colts' rushing success rate has dropped to 26.6 percent (25th) in Weeks 12-15 after being at 36.6 percent (1st) in Weeks 1-10.
Daniel Jones' fibula injury, and then his season-ending Achilles' injury, are factors here. But maybe the biggest factor is the Colts have faced some of the NFL's best run defenses over the last month.
And that leads us to Monday night, when the Colts will host the 10-4 San Francisco 49ers. For all the success San Francisco has had, since Week 7, they've allowed a worst-in-the-NFL rushing success rate of 37.1 percent.
Why Week 7? That's when four-time first-team AP All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner was placed on injured reserve with a season-ending dislocated and broken right ankle.
Warner is hardly the only key 49ers player to sustain a significant injury this season. The rash of injuries San Francisco has dealt with has made their 10-4 record that much more remarkable, with head coach Kyle Shahanan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh finding ways to win despite being without five-time Pro Bowl defensive end Nick Bosa (since week 3), 2025 first-round defensive end Mykel Williams (since Week 11), quarterback Brock Purdy (five games mid-season), tight end George Kittle (six games mid-season) and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (seven games, including Monday).
Purdy and Kittle are back on offense, but missing Bosa, Warner and Williams has made things challenging up front for the 49ers.
Interestingly, while the 49ers are allowing running backs to be efficient, they're not allowing many explosive plays. Since Week 7, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-lowest rate of rushes for 10 or more yards (7.6 percent), so this may be a game where the Colts need to methodically march their way down the field on offense.
And in Philip Rivers, the Colts are confident they have the quarterback to do just that.
"The way he sees the game is very similar to when he played," head coach Shane Steichen said. "Obviously, he's been a pocket passer his whole career, so that part hasn't changed at all. And it's about him seeing us, seeing the defense, getting us in and out of the right plays, which he does as good as anybody."
Getting the Colts in and out of the right plays can include checking into a certain pass protection to pick up a blitz or changing the intended point of attack on a run play, among other at-the-line tweaks. It's clear Rivers' football IQ is as off-the-charts as it was five years ago; the mind meld he and Steichen have could lead to the Colts' offense expanding on what it did against the Seahawks down the stretch of the 2025 season.
"He was here for three days of practice and then now he's got a full week under his belt being around the guys," Steichen said. "Just the different things you can do at the line of scrimmage will be good. So, each week the game plan obviously will be different, but we're excited for this week."
But this feeds back to the first point of this article: If the Colts can run the ball with more efficiency than they've been able to get to over the last four weeks – again, versus a run defense that hasn't had the same smothering efficiency numbers of their previous four opponents – maybe that can naturally open more things up for Rivers. Or maybe the Colts will need Rivers to do less with the ball in his hands than he was asked to do in Seattle.
We'll find out in prime time on Monday night.
