The Colts boarded a flight to Los Angeles three weeks ago with a 3-0 record – but with a narrative that their Week 4 game against the Rams was a test.
Was the Colts' strong start to the season for real? Could this team hang with a Rams side widely viewed as a Super Bowl contender?
The answer to both those questions wound up being yes – even though the Colts lost, 27-20, in a mistake-filled contest.
"I know the Rams were a great team, obviously a lot of respect for Stafford and Puka (Nacua) and company," linebacker Zaire Franklin said. "But I just really didn't like how we went out there – I feel like we looked at them as our test.
"We looked at them as – obviously, they have a great, they've had playoff success, Super Bowl champion, yada, yada, yada. But at the same time I feel like we didn't give ourselves enough credit. I think that kind of showed up a little bit in the game. I think we didn't go out there knowing we were the team we knew we were and believing in ourselves, and knowing that they had to adjust to us, that we were a test for them."
The Colts are going back to California with a 5-1 record and another looming challenge, this time against the 4-2 and AFC West-leading Los Angeles Chargers. But the Colts aren't plucky, is-this-success-real underdogs. They have the NFL's No. 1 scoring offense and the best record in the AFC.
Yes, this game is a test for the Colts – but it's also a test for the Chargers.
"I feel like going out there to L.A. a second time," Franklin said, "we're going to go out there with the right mentality."
With that in mind, here are a few things to look for on offense, defense and special teams on Sunday:
When the Chargers have the ball
The question here: How consistently can the Colts pressure Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert?
When the Colts' defense has created pressure on opposing quarterbacks, they've been among the NFL's toughest groups to play against:
| Stat | Pressure | NFL rank | No pressure | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropback yards/play | 3.5 | 11th | 7.4 | 17th |
| Dropback EPA/play | -.550 | 6th | +.289 | 20th |
| Dropback success rate | 20% | 2nd | 48.1% | 22nd |
| Explosive pass % | 9.4% | 11th | 15.6% | 23rd |
| Passer rating | 59.0 | 7th | 98.2 | 10th |
Herbert, meanwhile, has similar pressure/no pressure splits:
| Stat | Pressure | NFL rank | No pressure | NFL rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropback yards/play | 3.1 | 24th | 8.3 | 10th |
| Dropback EPA/play | -.421 | 21st | +.312 | 13th |
| Dropback success rate | 20.4% | 28th | 50.3% | 6th |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.6% | 22nd | 12.1% | 25th |
| Passer rating | 54.7 | 22nd | 112.1 | 11th |
The Colts enter Week 7 with a 34.7 percent pressure rate, 19th in the NFL. Notably, though, they're sixth in pressure rate over the last four weeks (41 percent), relevant here because the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos are fourth and first in the NFL in pressure rate allowed, respectively.
The Chargers, meanwhile, are 24th in pressure rate allowed (37.2 percent); that's increased to 39.6 percent over the last four games (26th). Left tackle Joe Alt's status will be important to monitor – he's missed the Chargers' last two games with an ankle injury, but returned to practice in a limited fashion on Thursday of this week.
How the Colts will look to generate pressure on Herbert, though, will be interesting whether Alt plays or not. No quarterback has had more dropbacks against blitzes than Herbert (96), and he's been sacked seven times and thrown two interceptions on those plays (for comparison, Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has faced the third-most blitzes this season; he's been sacked once and hasn't thrown an interception).
When those blitzes have created pressure, Herbert is 8/26 (30.8 percent) for 69 yards (2.6 yards/attempt). When teams blitz but do not create pressure, Herbert has been electric: He's 47/58 (81 percent) for 533 yards (9.2 yards/attempt).
Still, zooming back out: However the Colts attempt to generate pressure, they'll be greatly benefitted by that plan working.
"He's big, he's strong, he's fast, he can make all the throws," head coach Shane Steichen said. "Very intelligent, gets them in and out of the right plays. So, we've got to be on it this week with him."
When the Colts have the ball
We'll focus here on an area of the Chargers' defense where they've struggled, and another area in which they've thrived.
Against running plays, the Chargers are 28th in yards per play allowed (5.0); they're 24th in success rate allowed (34.7 percent), 25th in explosive run rate allowed (12.1 percent) and 26th in average rushing yards after contact allowed (3.3), per Pro Football Focus.
The Colts are 14th in rushing yards per play (4.6), 10th in rushing success rate (33.1 percent), ninth in explosive run rate (11 percent) and 11th in average rushing yards after contact (3.1); they are, notably, No. 1 in the NFL in rushing EPA per play (+.090).
We'll see if the Colts can lean into a strength of their offense; the Chargers could emphasize slowing down running back Jonathan Taylor, but that could open up more opportunities for Jones and the Colts' passing offense.
A strength of the Chargers' defense is what they're able to do when things get compressed in the red zone: They enter Week 7 allowing a touchdown on just 42.9 percent of opposing red zone possessions, second-lowest in the NFL.
The Colts are up to 10th in the NFL in red zone offense (65.5 percent), boosted by scoring a touchdown on 10 consecutive red zone possessions. The Arizona Cardinals entered Week 6 fourth in the NFL with a 47.1 red zone touchdown rate allowed; the Colts dropped them all the way down to 13th after last week's game.
When the Colts are kicking off or returning a kick
One last thing here. The Colts are fifth in the NFL in average yards per kickoff return (27.2), while the Chargers are 28th in average yards per kickoff return allowed (28.1). We'll find out about wide receiver Ashton Dulin's status later Friday – he missed Wednesday and Thursday's practices with a chest injury – but creating good field position and/or explosive returns could be a key factor if this game is close.
On the other side, the Chargers got 97 yards of returns, including a 40-yarder, from old friend Nyheim Hines, who last week played in his first regular season game since the end of the 2022 season.
