One of the narratives emanating from Week 4 – not just here at Colts.com, but nationally – was that the Colts took a good Los Angeles Rams team to the wire and lost by one score, mainly, because of self-inflicted mistakes. It was about as positive as analysis gets following a defeat.
Internally, none of that chatter impacted the Colts much. This is a confident group, and like 31 other teams, they preach an on-to-the-next-one mentality no matter if the previous result was an exhilarating win or a gutting loss.
"I think we're all determined to get back out there and play well," quarterback Daniel Jones said. "I don't think there's an idea that we need to necessarily turn things around. I think it's about getting back to what we do and executing well, learning from what we didn't do as well last week and continuing to improve as a team every week."
Still, for the way those of us non-players and non-coaches think and talk about the 2025 Colts, Sunday's game against the Las Vegas Raiders carries significant weight. Following up a narrow loss to a team widely considered a Super Bowl contender with a win over the 1-3 Raiders would be a sign the Colts are resilient on a week-to-week basis, and that'd be a strong indicator that, yes, a narrow loss to the Rams was more a sign of what the Colts could accomplish this season than a sign of any sort of long-term fault.
The Raiders, despite their record, will present a handful of difficult challenges for the Colts on Sunday. Let's look at a few key ones on each side of the ball:
When the Colts are on offense
Since his debut season in 2019, Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby has the sixth-most sacks (61.5), the most tackles for a loss (112) and the fifth-most quarterback hits (149) in the NFL. He is one of the league's premier defenders, a menace against both the run and pass, and a player whose presence has to be accounted for every time he's on the field.
"I don't have enough words in my vocabulary to describe it," offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. "He's a force on the field. He's one of the best players in the league, he has been for several years. He's an excellent, excellent football player. He plays just about every single down of the game, and he plays at maximum intensity every single down he's out there. He competes to and through the whistle. If we weren't playing against him, he's a pleasure to watch play football. He's just a great, great football player."
Crosby is an ironman who rarely comes off the field – he played 100 percent of Las Vegas' defensive snaps in 11 of his previous 16 games, and is one of four defensive ends to play over 1,000 snaps in a season (which he did in both 2022 and 2023) since 2020. He has a well-developed arsenal of pass rushing moves and is adept at shedding blocks to make tackles against the run; chipping and double-teaming him sometimes isn't enough.
And even if you think you have Crosby taken care of on a snap, he's an ultimate play-to-the-whistle guy.
"I think just his motor, how hard he plays play in and play out," Jones said when asked what sticks out about Crosby. "I think when you think about all the best players at that position, I think that's the first thing you see, is just how hard they play every single play. He does it as well, if not better than anybody in the league."
The Raiders' defense has done some good things this season – they're 8th in success rate allowed (32.6 percent) and are fourth in tackles for a loss or no gain (27), indicators that it can be difficult to stay in favorable down-and-distances against this group. Which leads us here: The Colts' offense has the NFL's second-highest average yards per play on first down (6.6); the Raiders' defense has the NFL's second-lowest average yards per play allowed on first down (3.5).
While it might seem easy to say which team's strength wins out here on first down will be a key factor on Sunday, that would gloss over what we just covered here – Crosby will be on the field, and even if you get to second and two, his ability to blow up a play – and a drive – needs to be accounted for by the Colts' offense.
When the Raiders have the ball
It took until Week 4, but the Raiders finally got the explosive return they expected from rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, the sixth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Jeanty ripped of 138 yards, including a 64-yard dash, with three total touchdowns last weekend against the Chicago Bears; in the first three games of his career, the Boise State product totaled 144 rushing yards with one touchdown.
"He's a powerful runner," head coach Shane Steichen said. "Very strong. He doesn't shy away from the contact, and so it's going to be a physical football game on Sunday with him running the football. We're excited for the challenge. He's just a hell of a player."
Jeanty enters Week 5 with the second-most missed tackles forced (22) in the NFL, behind only the Atlanta Falcons' Bijan Robinson (24) and slightly ahead of the Colts' Jonathan Taylor (20). But digging into Sunday, there's a fascinating matchup between the Colts' defense and the Raiders' running back here.
The Colts, heading into Week 5, have only missed eight tackles on running plays this season, the third-lowest total in the NFL. But opposing running backs are gaining 1.5 yards before contact per carry against the Colts' defense, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL; Jeanty, though, is averaging just 0.2 yards before contact per carry, the lowest rate among running backs this season.
Essentially: Jeanty is excellent at breaking tackles and the Colts' defense hasn't missed many tackles; Jeanty has had to do much of his work after contact, while the Colts' defense has allowed opposing running backs to churn out a higher rate of yards before contact. It's strength-on-strength when it comes to Jeanty's ability to break tackles, but both the Raiders' offense and Colts' defense need to improve before that contact is made.
"The kid, he gets it — he plays hard, he plays through contact, he doesn't shy away from contact," defensive tackle DeForest Buckner said. "It's definitely going to be a group effort getting him down. They got him going last week against Chicago and I'm sure they're going to stick with the run game and take some of the pressure off Geno (Smith). As a unit, we always preach 11 as one, so just gotta get hats on the ball."
Speaking of Smith, while he has the most interceptions (seven), has taken the fifth-most sacks (12) and has the seventh-lowest passer rating (79.1) in the NFL, those numbers are a little deceptive. Smith has had two rough games (Weeks 2 and 4, in which he's thrown for a combined 297 yards with two touchdowns and six interceptions) and two games that've been more the norm for him over the last few years (Weeks 1 and 3, in which he's thrown for 651 yards with four touchdowns and one interception).
Smith has proven himself to be one of the league's better quarterbacks since taking over as a full-time starter with the Seattle Seahawks in 2022, and the Colts expect to get that version of Smith – not the guy who's thrown those league-leading seven interceptions.
"Just a ton of respect on his work ethic and how he went about his business," Steichen, who coached Smith in 2018 with the Los Angeles Chargers, said. "And to see the success he's had in Seattle and now with the Raiders, just a ton of respect there."
Notably, though, the Raiders will be without starting left tackle Kolton Miller, who was placed on injured reserve this week due to an ankle injury.
