We've spent plenty of time and energy over the last eight months wondering, guessing and predicting what the 2025 Colts could look like.
On Sunday, we'll get our first actual answers. Finally.
A lot of that time and energy, understandably, has been spent on the Colts' offense, which will be quarterbacked by Daniel Jones. For the first game preview of the 2025 regular season, though, let's take a look at the other side of the ball, which underwent a significant change this offseason.
The Colts hired Lou Anarumo as defensive coordinator in the winter, then were aggressive in free agency to sign safety Cam Bynum and cornerback Charvarius Ward. In August, the Colts brought in veteran cornerback Xavien Howard, who looks to be a key contributor to this defense in 2025.
All offseason, we've wondered how Anarumo will fit his scheme to the players he has with the Colts after spending the last six seasons as the Cincinnati Bengals' defensive coordinator. His multiple, shape-shifting philosophy is designed to keep opposing quarterbacks off balance through disciplined, aggressive and disguised play in the secondary; up front, Anarumo has a history of manipulating opposing offenses' protection plans to get advantageous matchups for pass rushers (like defensive end Trey Hendrickson, who had 35 sacks over the last two years with the Bengals).
But again, on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, we'll finally see all this in action. And that action will come against a formidable Miami Dolphins offense that, when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy, is among the NFL's most efficient and explosive groups.
"Speed, speed and more speed," Anarumo said. "With the feature players that they have, everybody knows Tyreek (Hill) and certainly Jaylen Waddle, (De'Von) Achane the back – you put those three together, you've got a heck of a four-by-one (track) team. I don't care who the fourth element of it would be (laughing), they're going to be far ahead.
"They're great players. They've put up big numbers in this league. (Head coach) Mike (McDaniel) does a great job calling plays and keeping you off-balance with a bunch of different looks. There's a reason why they've put up the numbers they've put up in the past. We've got certainly a big challenge ahead."
Sunday will be Tagovailoa's first game against the Colts in his career – he missed games in 2021 and 2024 due to injuries. Last year, the Colts beat the Dolphins, 16-10, in a game defined by Waddle and Hill combining for two catches on three targets for 19 yards. But the Colts won't face Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle behind center again – it'll be Tagovailoa in Week 1, and what he did over 11 games in 2024 is a good starting point for the challenge the Colts will face on Sunday:
| 2024 Dolphins | With Tua Tagovailoa | Without Tua Tagovailoa |
|---|---|---|
| Win/loss record | 6-5 | 2-4 |
| Points/game | 24.1 (11th) | 13.3 (32nd) |
| EPA/play | .046 (10th) | -.281 (32nd) |
| Success rate | 39.2% (4th) | 30.1% (32nd) |
| Third down % | 44.4% (9th) | 25.3% (32nd) |
| Scoring drive % | 49.5% (4th) | 23.4% (31st) |
| Plays per drive | 6.7 (2nd) | 5.5 (32nd) |
| Yards per play | 5.3 (14th) | 4.0 (32nd) |
The interesting thing about Miami's offense is this isn't a team that throws it deep a whole lot despite having two dynamic receivers in Hill and Waddle. With Tagovailoa behind center in 2024, the Dolphins' offense had the lowest rate of passes traveling 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus – but that's a feature, not a bug, of how McDaniel schemes things up.
"Obviously with their speed, but it's kind of different than what people would expect," Bynum explained. You would think, because they're fast, they're throwing deep balls every single play. But it's moreso trying to find them in space and the run after the catch is the hardest part about going against those guys."
The Dolphins have been able to create that space for Hill and Waddle for a few reasons. First, defenses have to respect their ability to win on vertical routes downfield – "they're faster than 90 percent of guys in the league," Bynum said of Hill and Waddle – so some teams opt to play softer off coverages. Second, even if you want your cornerbacks to press, the Dolphins use pre-snap motion with remarkable effectiveness, which creates space for Hill and Waddle once the ball is in Tagovailoa's grasp.
"It's effective because it keeps guys off, guys can't press," Howard, who played for the Dolphin from 2016-2023, said. "When you go in motion, as a cornerback, you gotta line up and get your keys down — it doesn't give you time to do that. You gotta go play right now. He's already in and out of his break, ready to go."
Squeezing the space available for Hill and Waddle will be key – as well as for Achane, an explosive player in space as well – when they get the ball in their hands. Also important, though, is rallying defenders to make tackles when those guys do get into space. When Tagovailoa was behind center last year, the Dolphins averaged 18 yards per reception when a pass-catcher forced at least one missed tackle, per Pro Football Focus, good for the eighth-highest rate in the NFL.
"It's swarm tackling those guys," Bynum said. "You can't put yourself in a one-on-one position against anybody on their offense because we know that's their strength."
The X-Factor for the Dolphins, above all this, is the availability of Tagovailoa – who, again, will start Sunday. Since McDaniel was hired in 2022, the Dolphins are 25-16 with Tagovailoa starting; in that span, he's completed 69 percent of his passes, averaged 269 yards per game and has a passer rating of 102.5.
"That's the system for that guy," Howard, who would know better than most, said. "The stats show what he can do in the offense when he's healthy. He plays good ball — great ball."
So that's the backdrop against which Anarumo's Colts defense will make its 2025 debut. The Dolphins will provide a strong challenge; the Colts are expecting to be up for it come Sunday at 1 p.m. in downtown Indianapolis.
