For one decade-long streak to end, another must as well.
The Colts (8-4) enter Week 14 tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) atop the AFC South, a division they have not won since 2014. If the Colts are to win their division and host a home playoff game for the first time in 11 years, they in all likelihood need to beat the Jaguars on Sunday at EverBank Stadium.
And the Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014.
Now, how much does that north Florida losing streak matter to the Colts? Very little, if at all.
"I do not (talk about it)," head coach Shane Steichen said. "All I know is that we play Jacksonville in Jacksonville this week, and we're excited for that opportunity."
The most the Colts discuss their Jacksonville losing streak is when they're asked about it in press conferences. Outside of those settings, what happened from 2015-2024 doesn't impact how Daniel Jones will attack a zone-heavy Jaguars defense, or how Lou Anarumo will scheme against a Jacksonville offense that's scored 25 or more points in four straight games since a midseason trade for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers.
Notably, none of those three names there (Jones, Anarumo, Meyers) had a single thing to do with this streak.
"I think you guys talk about the streak enough for all of us," linebacker Zaire Franklin. "I don't really know how relevant it is to be honest with you just because it's a new year, it's a new scene. (They have) a new head coach. We got – it's a whole bunch of new people in here. Every year is a new opportunity. We even got new ownership.
"It's a whole lot of new and it's a year of a whole lot of firsts. A whole lot of firsts going around this year. JT did a whole lot of firsts. We even did a whole lot of firsts, so – first in a while at least. So that is just an irrelevant thing, but I understand it's something to speak on. Was thankful that we was able to give our fans something less to talk about after that Week 1 thing. I guess we got another one to run through this week."
With that in mind, here's what to watch for in all three phases during an absolutely massive game on Sunday:
When the Colts have the ball
The top line here is the Jaguars' defense has held opposing teams to 82.4 rushing yards per game, the lowest average in the NFL entering Week 14. Only two teams (the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks) have allowed opponents to score on a lower rate of possessions than the Jaguars (32.6 percent), with Jacksonville's ability to take the ball away (20 turnovers, third-most) a key factor there.
Let's start with the Jaguars smothering opposing rushing attacks. A few things here: First, the Jaguars have yet to face a team that's top 10 in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt – but will on Sunday with the Colts, who despite some issues in the last two weeks still lead the NFL at 5.1 yards per carry.
The Colts will certainly look to bounce back on the ground, though, as in losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans, they collectively averaged 3.8 yards per rush, 20th in the NFL in that span.
"It's just been one little thing here or there," offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. "It's not one run scheme, it's not one guy making the same mistake. It's just these little things.
"... We're trying to do everything we can to make those yards and put JT in great position to go do what he does so well. And the defenses, they're spending as much time as we are trying to stop that from happening. It's an ongoing battle."
From a scheme standpoint, Jaguars defensive coordinator Anthony Campinile leans heavily into zone coverages – and has had plenty of success with those. Jacksonville is one of a dozen teams that's played zone on 550 or more defensive snaps; on those, they're second in the NFL in EPA per play (-.150), seventh in success rate (31.5 percent) and seventh in yards per play (5.2).
The Colts' offense, entering Week 14, has had success attacking zone defenses: They're first in yards per play (7.2), second in EPA per play (.131) and second in success rate (40.9 percent).
Zooming out, the larger thing for the Colts here is getting back to the success they had on first down prior to the bye week. Avoiding second-and-long situations is important against Jacksonville: The Jaguars are second in EPA per play on second-and-seven or more (-.222); having fewer of those difficult down-and-distances on second down requires efficiency on first down.
The Colts still lead the NFL in success rate on first down (37.6 percent) and are second in EPA per play on first down (.130). But over the last two games that success rate has dipped to 26.2 percent (23rd) and the Colts' EPA per play on first down has dropped to .022 (17th).
When the Jaguars have the ball
Trevor Lawrence enters Week 14 with the third-lowest passer rating among qualified quarterbacks at 81.6; no starting quarterback has led his team to the playoffs with a passer rating under 82 since Marcus Mariota's Tennessee Titans in 2017. Lawrence has completed under 60 percent of his passes, thrown 11 interceptions and been sacked 32 times in 12 games.
But amid some of the Jaguars' season-long lows throwing the ball has been a noticeable uptick in efficiency since acquiring wide receiver Jakobi Meyers from the Las Vegas Raiders prior to the trade deadline. Over the last four games – all with Meyers – the Jaguars' dropback success rate has risen to 43.9 percent, fourth-best in the NFL since Week 10, while Jacksonville is generating an explosive gain on 17.1 percent of their passes, also fourth-best in that span.
Meyers, who was a 1,000-yard receiver for Las Vegas in 2024, has 18 catches on 21 targets for 245 yards with two touchdowns with the Jaguars.
"Good speed, good route-running ability," Steichen said. "(He's a) hell of a player."
Jacksonville also recently got tight end Brenton Strange back from injured reserve, and he has eight catches for 138 yards with a touchdown in the Jaguars' last two games. And 2024 first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr., while his production has dipped and he's been banged up this year, remains one of the NFL's most dangerous outside-the-numbers threats.
"You got guys that can hurt you, not only vertically down the field, but you got some really good route runners inside," defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo said.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 7-1 when rushing for over 100 yards, and they've gone over 150 yards on the ground four times this season.
On special teams
The Colts swapped in Blake Grupe for Michael Badgley this week and will move forward with the ex-new Orleans Saints kicker. Baseline: The Colts need Grupe to connect on his PATs, with Badgley's three misses on PAT leading to him being waived on Tuesday.
But if Sunday's game comes down to a kick, the Colts may need Grupe – who looked impressive during a practice window open to the media on Thursday – to deliver. Last year, Grupe made 27 of 31 field goals (87.1 percent) for the Saints.
