Colts Playoff Scenarios: Week 16

What has to happen for the Indianapolis Colts to earn a postseason berth? Check out the latest scenarios for Indy to win the AFC South Division title or earn a wild card spot heading into Week 16.

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INDIANAPOLIS — What has to happen for the Indianapolis Colts to earn a postseason berth? Check out the latest scenarios for Indy to win the AFC South Division title or earn a wild card spot heading into its Week 16 matchup Sunday against the New York Giants at Lucas Oil Stadium.

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This weekend, Colts fans should absolutely be cheering for:

  • The Colts to defeat the Giants
  • The Saints to defeat the Steelers
  • The Chargers to defeat the Ravens 
  • The Redskins to defeat the Titans
  • The Jaguars defeat the Dolphins
  • The Eagles to defeat the Texans

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The Colts win the AFC South Division at 10-6 if…

…the Texans lose their final two games.

  • Colts hold the divisional tiebreaker with a Houston loss to Jacksonville.

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The Colts win the Wild Card at 10-6 if…

...The Steelers or the Ravens drop one of their final two games.

  • With the Dolphins losing last weekend, they would not affect the Colts at 10-6. Whichever one of these two AFC North teams drops a game will vacate the sixth seed and the Wild Card spot of which the Colts would have outright ownership with two wins over the Giants and the Titans to close out the season.
  • The Steelers (8-5-1) wrap up their season Sunday at the Saints (12-2), and in Week 17 at home against the Cincinnati Bengals (6-8).
  • The Ravens (8-6) wrap up their season Saturday at the Chargers (11-3), and in Week 17 at home against the Cleveland Browns (6-7-1).

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The Colts win the Wild Card at 9-7 if…

…Indy beats Tennessee in Week 17 AND Baltimore wins their final two AND the Steelers drop their final two games AND Miami loses one of their final two.

  • The win over the Titans would give the Colts the tiebreaker over their AFC South foes in the case that they entered the game at 9-6. The Steelers would be eliminated from playoff contention at 8-7-1 and Baltimore would win the AFC North at 10-6. Miami finishing 8-8 would keep them from contending with the Colts.

OR

…Indy beats Tennessee in Week 17 AND Baltimore and Miami to lose one of their final two games. 

  • Pittsburgh would win the AFC North at 9-6-1 or 10-5-1. Baltimore's loss in the final two weeks would be to an AFC opponent which would make their conference record 6-5, and a Colts win over the Titans would also bring them to 6-5. The tiebreaker would then go to strength of victory which gives the edge to Indy, .464-.415.
  • This scenario calls for the Dolphins to finish 8-8 because if they win their final two they would take the playoff spot in this case because their conference record would be 7-4, eliminating both Baltimore and Indy.

OR

…Indy beats Tennessee in Week 17 AND Miami wins out to finish 9-7 AND Baltimore drops their final two games.

  • Pittsburgh would win the AFC North and Baltimore would be eliminated from playoff contention at 8-8. Indy would be tied with Miami at 9-7 and the Colts would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Dolphins for the Wild Card.

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