We're back with another edition of The Colts Show Mailbag, where I'll answer listener questions both on the podcast and here on Colts.com every week.
You can submit your questions to me a few ways: At Colts.com/Mailbag, on social media (like X and Instagram) and in the YouTube comments for the podcast. Get your questions in, since next week's episode will be a full season preview – and I'll probably answer more than one on the podcast.
For this week's podcast mailbag question, I answered one from Steve Kloote about defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau being inactive for Week 1. For the answer, check out this week's episode of The Colts Show – I was also joined by cornerback Kenny Moore II for a deep dive into Lou Anarumo's defense – wherever you get your podcasts, including on:
Let's dive into the rest of this week's batch of questions:
Tom Oestreich (Carmel, Ind.): Patrick Surtain II is the reigning DPOY and will be blanketing Michael Pittman on Sunday afternoon. How big of a role will Tyler Warren, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce have in helping Daniel Jones stay ahead of the chains and sustain drives?
JJ Stankevitz: We'll see if that's ultimately what Denver does with Surtain. Last year, the Broncos started Week 15 by using Surtain on wide receiver Alec Pierce a decent amount – but as the game went on, he shifted to covering Michael Pittman Jr. most of (but not all) the time. Pierce exited the game with an injury late in the second quarter.
How Denver uses Surtain in this game is going to be something I'm going to be closely watching – is he going to stay on one side of the field? Is he going to get up and press Pierce in certain situations? Is he going to travel with Pittman? If Tyler Warren is out wide, will Surtain go to him, as he did at time with Brock Bowers against the Las Vegas Raiders last year?
Anyways, I think the question here is if guys like Warren and Downs can make an impact on underneath routes – not necessarily where you'll see Surtain play – to keep the Colts' offense on schedule. Interestingly, opposing offenses last year targeted that area of the field – 0-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage between the numbers – against Denver (22.6 percent) below the NFL average (24.6 percent).
The larger point here, then, is the presence of Surtain – no matter where he is on the field or who he lines up against – impacts how an offense is able to operate. That's why he was the 2024 AP Defensive Player of the Year despite being targeted just 52 times in coverage. Could the Colts try to mitigate Surtain's impact by throwing over the middle? They could. But Denver has good defenders there, too.
Despite being one player, Surtain has a global impact on the Broncos' defense – and how opposing offenses are able to play against them.
Josh Ryan (Indianapolis): If it weren't for a litany of drops Tennessee might have beaten Denver last week. What did you see in film from that game that gives you confidence about what we can exploit this week?
JJ Stankevitz: Brian Baldinger did a good job breaking this down:
Ward's receivers caught just 70.6 percent of their catchable targets in Week 1, the lowest rate in the NFL, which speaks to Josh's question here. If that number is closer to 100 percent – where the Colts were in Week 1, by the way, with three other teams – maybe Tennessee has the juice to pull off an upset on the road. Give credit to Denver's defense, though, since not all of all of those incompletions were due to drops, and there's also a cumulative effect from how hard it is to play against the Broncos.
Let's flip this around to look at the Broncos' offense against the Colts' defense, though, since I spent this week's game preview looking at the Colts' offense vs. Broncos' defense matchup. Specifically, the Colts will need to lean on some depth as Week 2 gets here.
The Colts will be without cornerbacks Jaylon Jones (hamstring) and Charvarius Ward Sr. (concussion) on Sunday, meaning you'll see Mekhi Blackmon and Johnathan Edwards as the next men up at cornerback opposite Kenny Moore II and Xavien Howard. Denver has a varied group of pass-catchers, highlighted by a physical threat in Courtland Sutton and a downfield burner in Marvin Mims Jr. Holding up in the secondary will be key; additionally, we'll see what the status of defensive end Laiatu Latu is come Sunday.
Latu, who recorded his first career interception in Week 1, did not participate in practice Thursday or Friday with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable.
So we'll see if the Colts will be down one starter (Ward) or two starters (Ward, Latu) plus a key depth piece (Jones).
Denver's offense, meanwhile, had some issues with the Titans in Week 1. Quarterback Bo Nix threw two interceptions and averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt on 40 pass attempts, while running back R.J. Harvey ripped off a 50-yard run but Denver averaged under four yards per attempt outside of that explosive rush. Still, I wouldn't read too much into Denver's offensive struggles – their head coach is Sean Payton, one of the best offensive minds in the NFL (and NFL history), and it's fair to assume he'll figure out some answers for Nix and the Broncos' offense going forward.
