Let's do a little blind comparison of two Daniel Jones stat lines to start here.
- Game A (quarters 1-3): 16/22 (72.7%), 164 yards (7.5 yards/attempt), 2 touchdowns, 124.1 passer rating
- Game B (quarters 1-3): 20/29 (69%), 212 yards (7.3 yards/attempt), 2 touchdowns, 113.0 passer rating
Game A is what Jones did against the Super Bowl-contending Kansas City Chiefs over the first 45 minutes of Week 12; Game B is what Jones did against the moribund Las Vegas Raiders in the first 45 minutes of Week 5.
This isn't meant to paper over the Colts' offensive struggles in the fourth quarter and overtime of Week 12 – Jones completed three of nine passes for 17 yards on those final four drives, which heavily contributed to his team losing a 20-9 lead and then the game – but it's meant as a reminder that Jones, up until the fourth quarter, efficiently executed the Colts' offensive game plan.
The last part of that sentence has, for the large majority of the 2025 season, has been the case.
"He was completing balls, he had a 100 passer rating, I think he was 14 of 16 at one point," head coach Shane Steichen said. "He's playing good ball. It's just winning those games at the end, I think finishing's a big part of it going forward. He's been playing fantastic for us all season."
Back to that comparison, there are some obvious situational things between those two games. Most notably, against the Raiders, the Colts scored a touchdown on every possession that entered the red zone, including two that began inside the Raiders' 10-yard line after a blocked punt and an interception. The Colts settled for field goals on their final two red zone possessions against the Chiefs.
But in that Week 5 game, running back Jonathan Taylor carried 17 times for 66 yards (3.9 yards/attempt); against the Chiefs, Taylor carried 13 times for 57 yards (4.4 yards/attempt) in the first three quarters. Taylor was much more efficient against the Raiders (35.3 percent of his rushes generated a first down or touchdown, versus 15.4 percent against the Chiefs), but there wasn't necessarily a massive gulf in his production between the first three quarters of those two games.
Anyways, the point again is not to gloss over the Colts' fourth quarter/overtime demise against the Chiefs; it's to present a reason why some of the chest-out takes you might've seen about the downfall of the Colts' offense feel premature and based on confirming priors rather than what we've witnessed from Jones, Shane Steichen and this group in 2025. Perhaps the issue in Kansas City wasn't a fatal flaw of the Colts' offense, but an issue of a team still learning how to close out a tight game on the road against a team that's been to the Super Bowl in five of the last six years.
"I thought we were pretty efficient the first three quarters, and the fourth quarter wasn't efficient enough," head coach Shane Steichen said. "We gotta finish those games out like we did against Atlanta and Arizona and those games."
Zooming out a bit, the Colts have lost two of their last three games and, for the first time in 2025, have a negative point differential over a three-game stretch: They're minus-four after a seven-point loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, a six-point win over the Atlanta Falcons and a three-point loss to the Chiefs.
But do those three games erase that the Colts, even with whatever issues on offense have cropped up, are still leading the NFL in EPA per play (+.150), success rate (40.7 percent) and points per game (31.0) entering Week 13? On one hand, three games represents a quarter of the Colts' season to date; on another, three games could be a trend if the Colts don't adjust to how defenses have played them since the calendar flipped to November.
"The last several opponents all have different schematic ways that they like to pressure the quarterback," offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. "... Whether you're that vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers defense, a lot of times they're rushing five, they have some different blitz schemes. The Atlanta Falcons have some really aggressive overload pressures that tend to show up on certain downs and distances. They're really going to make you sort of answer the bell (in) those downs and distances. And then the Chiefs, there's a lot of that sort of all-out Cover-0 style blitz, where you have to be ready for it at any point.
"... There are things we're working on as an offensive coaching staff and as an offense overall to improve that whole thing. It does all work together – protection in the pass game, getting open on time, getting the ball out on time, and then blocking up a blitz, or just blocking up a rush, four or five-man rush. Those things are all important."
Maybe, though, there's something to none of those games being played at Lucas Oil Stadium, where the Colts have scored 29 or more points in all five of their games in downtown Indianapolis this season.
"(In) those loud road environments, being able to communicate really, really well so that we're executing really, really well. It's a classic NFL challenge in those environments," Cooter said. "But something that all teams work to do a little bit better as they get more reps at it. So, we're working on improving."
The Colts haven't played at home since Week 8, which was over a month ago.
"It feels like we haven't played at home in a long time," Jones said.
This all builds up to Sunday's Week 13 game against the Texans being a potentially instructive test for Jones and the Colts' offense. Houston has arguably the best defense in the NFL; the Texans are allowing a score on just 25.7 percent of opposing possessions, which is the fifth-lowest rate any defense has had since 2018. No team is allowing fewer yards per pass than the Texans (5.4), and they're one of four teams who've pressured opposing quarterbacks on at least 40 percent of their dropbacks. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter (11 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (10.5 sacks); they're the first pair of teammates with double-digit sacks in the first 11 games of a season since 2019.
"I think looking back at the game from last week, I think we just didn't make the plays down the stretch that we needed to that we have," Jones said. "And so just got to clean that up. I don't think that's one area necessarily. I think kind of, across the board, we all have to do better. So, yeah, but looking forward to this week. It's a good defense. It's aggressive. They do a good job rushing the passer. They've got good players in the secondary and at linebacker. So, it'll be a good challenge for us."
