1. Daniel Jones played better than the Colts' 16-point total might indicate.
Head coach Shane Steichen on Monday was asked what he's looked at as to why the Colts' offense has now scored 20 or fewer points in three of its last four games. His answer:
"I think first down efficiency," Steichen said. "I think we've been pretty darn good on first down efficiency, but I think what really gnaws at me is the three-and-outs. Obviously, to start the game with two three-and-outs. Obviously, you want to create momentum early in the game. And to start with two three-and-outs there, we've got to be better there. That starts with myself. And then obviously, staying on the field on third downs and being efficient on first and second down is a big part of it – not putting yourself in those third-and-longs, those second-and-longs. So, being efficient on first down is a big part of it, and obviously the three-and-outs. We can't have the three-and-outs."
The Colts went three-and-out on six consecutive possessions between the final four of Week 12's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and the first two of Week 13's loss to the Houston Texans. But it wasn't necessarily because of a significant issue on first down: Quarterback Daniel Jones completed eight of nine pass attempts on first down for 95 yards with a touchdown; his lone incompletion was a check down on which running back Jonathan Taylor was tagged by Pro Football Focus with a drop.
Jones' completions on first down went for two, 33, 19, 18, four, one, 12 (TD) and six yards. Only two of those put the Colts in difficult second down distances (the two- and one-yard completions), while four generated either a first down or a touchdown.
But Jones only had two dropbacks on second down with six or fewer yards to go; he completed both those attempts for 32 yards with a 19-yard touchdown to wide receiver Alec Pierce. And only one of Jones' dropbacks on third down came with six or fewer yards to go – he took his lone sack of the game on a third-and-four in the first quarter, which was more of a coverage sack than an immediate win by the fearsome duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
The flip side: Six of Jones' dropbacks came on third down with seven or more yards to go; he completed two of six passes for 44 yards, with those two completions coming in quick succession to wide receiver Josh Downs in the third quarter. His third-and-11 deep ball to Downs, on which Jones climbed the pocket and delivered a dime down the far sideline, was arguably his most impressive play of the game.
"Both of those were big time plays by both those guys," Steichen said.
But two of Jones' third down pass attempts were dropped – both by Downs, who spoke about those Monday, and more on them later. The other two incompletions came when Anderson delivered quick interior pressure on a third-and-seven late in the third quarter, and then on a tight-window throw to Downs that was broken up by Texans slot defender Jalen Pitre.
On third down, running back Jonathan Taylor carried three times and picked up one first down, which came on a third-and-one in the fourth quarter.
So that's how the Colts got to three of 10 on third down – a few good plays by Houston's defense and a few miscues by the offense. But Jones, across Sunday's game, stood in the pocket knowing he was going to get pressured and delivered several fantastic throws, which even despite the final point total felt relatively encouraging after a second watch on Monday.
"I thought he was efficient throwing it," Steichen said. "He had the two touchdown passes, over 100 passer rating. He made some tight-window throws, made some big-time throws. Obviously, stood in the pocket (and) took some shots. Overall, I thought he did some really good things."
2. The issue, then, might've been as simple as execution.
Something Steichen lamented in the moments after losing on Sunday was the Colts not making the three or four plays that can swing a game a close as this one was. There were a handful of unforced errors for the Colts on Sunday that torpedoed drives – plays that an offense can't afford to make against a defense as relentlessly stingy as the Texans.
On a second and five midway through the first quarter, Jones fumbled center Tanor Bortolini's snap on an under center run play, falling on it for a gain of one; he took a sack on the ensuing third-and-four. At the snap, the Colts' offensive line and tight ends looked like they created some good push – Bortolini and tackles Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann quickly climbed to the second level; tight end Mo Alie-Cox, left guard Quenton Nelson and right guard Matt Goncalves held the point of attack, and tight end Drew Ogletree was screaming across the formation to block Anderson, while tight end Warren got to the second level and was squaring up against Pitre.
In the second quarter, on a fourth-and-one on the Texans' 11-yard line, Warren motioned from left to right and then quickly got under center, looking for a sneak to pick up the first down. Instead, the exchange wasn't clean, and the ball squirted to Taylor, who was tackled for a loss in the backfield.
Kicker Michael Badgley missed a PAT after Pierce's touchdown, which ultimately meant the Colts were chasing a four-point deficit (and had to go for it on fourth down in the fourth quarter) rather than having Badgley attempt what would've been a game-tying 49-yard field goal.
And then Downs dropped throws from Jones on the Colts' first and final third downs of the game; both could've been – but weren't guaranteed to be – first downs. The latter of the two meant Jones had to face an all but do-or-die fourth-and-nine on which he threw incomplete toward wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr.
"It's all little mistakes that we can clean up – it's all fixable things," Downs said. "It's not like a drastic thing that's like, oh, we're in trouble. It's just little mistakes that come here and there. But we're playing really good teams now, so we got to be more on point with some of those things."
The thing about facing a defense as good as Houston's – they're No. 1 in scoring defense (16.5 points/game) and total defense (265.7 yards/game) – is beating them requires near-perfect execution. The Colts, with an offense that's played as close to mistake-free football as possible in so many games this season, did not clear that bar on Sunday.
"When you lose tight games, it's frustrating because you're like, 'Shoot, we could've had that, we could've had this, we could've had that,'" Steichen said. "You look back, it's three or four plays when you lose the tight ones. So we've got to find a way to get those three or four plays when it is a tight game like that."
3. Josh Downs explained his two key drops.
Let's make one thing clear: Downs' two drops were extremely uncharacteristic. Downs, per Pro Football Focus, had not dropped a pass this season prior to Week 13; he had six drops in his entire career coming into Sunday, and had never dropped multiple passes in the same game.
PFF tracks drop rate on passes deemed "catchable," and on those, Downs entering Week 13 had the 10th-lowest drop rate (3.2 percent) among wide receivers with at least 100 targets since the start of the 2023 season. So when Jones targeted Downs on that third-and-nine in the fourth quarter, throwing hot with a linebacker screaming through the A-gap, everything about the wide receiver's history suggested he'd make the play.
"I make that play nine times out of 10, usually eight times out of 10," Downs said. "But I just lost my footing and that kind of made me drop the ball. That's not an excuse, but it's really want just happened – I just lost my footing and dropped the ball."
Downs made several massive plays in between his two drops, like his remarkable toe drag catch on Jones' third-and-11 deep ball and then in making some quick, shifty moves after the catch to convert a third-and-nine in the third quarter. He made a spectacular diving catch on another Jones' deep ball on that same drive, though it was negated due to a holding penalty assessed to Raimann.
"I had like two drops yesterday," Downs said. "So don't want to have (any) drops as a receiver, but yeah, just got to make the plays that come to me and go from there. Made a couple, but got to make those other ones. I mean, that's pretty much it."
4. One more thing on the Colts' passing offense.
File this under "reasons to not hit the panic button" as the Colts stare down a season-defining five-game stretch: No passing offense has had a higher EPA per dropback against the Texans this season than the Colts (+.130); it was just the fourth time this season the Texans allowed a positive EPA per dropback, per Pro Football Focus, and the first time a team got over +.1 EPA per dropback since the first two weeks of the season (Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield).
The flip side here you can point to is Jones completing one of 10 passes when blitzed on second, third and fourth down, per Pro Football Focus. But all 10 of those attempts came with at least seven yards to the sticks – and minimizing those down-and-distances with better execution could help minimize the sheer volume of blitzes in difficult situations Jones has to face down the stretch.
5. A couple of quick thoughts on the Colts' defense.
- The Colts' defense, over the last four games, has allowed a touchdown on nine of 47 opponent possessions (19.1 percent), the ninth-lowest rate in that time frame. More narrowly, in the last two weeks, the Colts have allowed just three third down conversions on nine red zone plays; one of those was an illegal contact penalty assessed to cornerback Jaylon Jones in the first quarter, and the other two were on third-and-one plays. While this defense is not generating a ton of three-and-outs, they're largely making plays in critical situations and forcing opponents to settle for field goals.
- Losing cornerback Sauce Gardner to a calf injury two plays into the game changed plenty for how the Colts were going to defend the Texans' passing offense. But cornerback Charvarius Ward Sr. didn't use that as an excuse on Monday for why Houston wide receiver Nico Collins was able to catch five passes for 98 yards and run in a touchdown: "He's an All-Pro, highest-paid corner in the game," Ward said. "He a big dog too. So, we definitely would have been better off with him. But just me, putting me on Nico man – just having to rise to the occasion. And I don't think I played well, played that good yesterday. I'll get better though."
- The earliest defensive tackle DeForest Buckner can be activated from injured reserve is Week 15 against the Seattle Seahawks. There's no guarantee he will be, but something to file away for next week.
