1. What is the legacy of Daniel Jones' 2025 season?
To me, what Daniel Jones did in 2025 should be defined by two things. The first is the remarkable efficiency with which he operated the Colts' offense prior to the bye week, which pushed the Colts to an 8-2 record with an offense widely regarded as the best in the NFL.
The second is the remarkable toughness Jones displayed to play through a fibula injury against the Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Jones never used the injury as an excuse, and he had more than a handful of moments even while playing with it – like some tough-as-nails throws in the face of pressure in Week 13 against the Texans.
Cruelly, it looked like Jones was moving a lot better on Sunday. On a play-action rollout to his right, Jones wound up scrambling across the field for a four-yard gain on a first-and-10 in the Jaguars' red zone; earlier in the first quarter, the Colts got him on a play-action half-roll to throw to a wide open Michael Pittman Jr.
And from the pocket, Jones was ripping throws with timing and accuracy through the Jaguars' tight zone coverage.
But when Jones was heated up with a blitz on a third-and-eight, he planted his right foot to slide away from pressure. I'm not here to speculate on exactly when Jones' injury happened in that dropback, but he still re-set his feet and completed a pass to Alec Pierce.
The play was called back due to a chop block penalty on Jonathan Taylor. But Jones' final on-field act as the Colts' 2025 starting quarterback was, somehow, completing a pass amid sustaining a season-ending torn Achilles'.
Then, for the second half of Sunday's game, Jones was on the sidelines – wearing a boot – helping Leonard out with whatever he needed.
"That's just him being a great teammate," head coach Shane Steichen said. "He has a huge injury, and some guys will sit in the locker room. He wanted to be out there with his guys and show support for Riley and the rest of the guys."
There's one other thing here, which is a product of the first two parts of Jones' 2025 season. He completely earned the respect and trust of every single player in the Colts' locker room and every single coach on Steichen's staff. He did so through his play, of course, but also through how he conducted himself behind the scenes.
"The guy is as top-notch as it gets," Steichen said. "One of the best I've ever been around in the quarterback room. Just his mentality and the way he goes about his business, the way he works, the way he treats people. Just phenomenal."
2. Where do the Colts go from here?
The Colts are 8-5 and haven't just lost three games in a row, they've now lost their starting quarterback in Jones, one of the central figures for their 8-2 record prior to the bye week.
But the Colts cannot operate like all hope is lost. Internally, within their locker room, 51 of the 53 players on their roster are not quarterbacks – and those guys will try to support Riley Leonard by taking the pressure off him moving forward.
The Colts, though, will need to find a way to get off the ropes with a backup quarterback and an offense that's now scored under 21 points in three consecutive games.
The main question for the Colts to answer is what their offense will look like with Leonard behind center. Leonard completed 18 of 29 passes for 145 yards with an interception and a rushing touchdown after replacing Jones – though the circumstances into which Leonard stepped were incredibly challenging. As the Colts' backup quarterback, he didn't get any practice reps with the first-team offense (no NFL backups get those reps); it was pouring rain for most of Sunday game; and the Jaguars' defense largely stopped the Colts' ground game.
But the challenge won't get any easier for Leonard, even with a full week of practice, with his first career start coming next Sunday at Lumen Field against the 10-3 Seattle Seahawks – who boast one of the NFL's top five defenses by most metrics.
The Colts' season comes down to the next four games. None of them will be easy, whether it's the Seahawks or the San Francisco 49ers (9-4) or the Jaguars (9-4) or the Houston Texans (8-5). But it's not over yet. The Colts will move on, seek solutions and try to find a way to win in Seattle next weekend.
"We've got everything we want in front of us still," Steichen said. "We've got to go. So, we've got to get this thing cleaned up and get ready for Seattle. We've got a big one on the road. That's the message today."
3. What did Riley Leonard show on Sunday?
Leonard had a couple of nice moments that could be things he and the Colts can build upon moving forward, though he'll have to work through a knee injury to play on Sunday against the Seahawks. Steichen said the Colts hope Leonard can play; he also said he came away from Sunday's game impressed with what Leonard did against the Jaguars given the circumstances.
"I was actually impressed with what he did," Steichen said. :In the situation, he comes in there in a rainy game, with weather, all that stuff. He marches down the field, throws a touchdown that gets called back. He had a big third-down conversion, made some good plays, some good throws. I thought he went in and competed his tail off."
The touchdown Steichen referenced was called back for offensive pass interference on Michael Pittman Jr., who officials determined pushed off Jaguars cornerback Montaric Brown early in the third quarter on a third-and-eight. But what Leonard did both before and after the snap was impressive.
Jacksonville had seven defenders walked up to the line of scrimmage when Leonard got behind center. He motioned for Taylor to go from his right to his left and brought tight end Tyler Warren in closer to right tackle Jalen Travis; he picked a low snap off the ground and, with safety Eric Murray running full speed at him, he placed a pass accurately to Pittman in the end zone just before getting hit.
Earlier in the game, facing another third-and-eight, the Jaguars had six players walked up to the line of scrimmage and sent five rushers, with a linebacker dropping into coverage. Leonard stepped up in the pocket and then escaped to his left, and when linebacker Dennis Gardeck left his coverage assignment and began pursing him, he flipped a pass to Alec Pierce for a catch-and-run explosive completion for a first down.
4. What went wrong defensively?
The 36 points the Colts allowed were a season high; prior to Sunday, the Colts hadn't allowed more than 28 points in a game in 2025.
While the Jaguars scored 14 points off turnovers forced in Colts' territory – at the 21- and 28-yard lines – one of those touchdowns came on the first play after a Taylor fumble, with running back Travis Etienne rumbling 28 yards for a score.
The Colts' defense also did not record a sack or a quarterback hit, and they pressured quarterback Trevor Lawrence on just 26.5 percent of dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
"I think we could've played the run better, affected the quarterback more," defensive tackle Grover Stewart said.
Lawrence, while not getting hit, made a handful of spectacular throws on Sunday.
"We just got to win our matchups, be more dialed in in the week and just try to take advantage of opportunities," defensive end Kwity Paye said. "Ball was getting out fast yesterday. We just needed to collapse the pocket more often, faster, and get hands up, try to affect the quarterback any way that we can."
5. What are the Colts' playoff odds?
Last thing here. The Colts are 8-5 and on the outside looking in of the AFC playoff picture, though there's plenty left to determine here – starting with Monday night's Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Right now, as of Monday afternoon, the Athletic's playoff simulator gives the Colts a 30 percent chance to make the postseason – 3 percent to win the division and 27 percent to make it as a wild card. A Chargers loss jumps those odds to 36 percent; a Chargers win drops them to 23 percent.
If the Colts and Chargers finish the season with identical records, the Colts would make the playoffs based on their Week 7 win in Los Angeles. Three teams at 6-7 are still alive, too: The Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins. The Colts do not have the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Chiefs, but do with the Dolphins.
The point is, there's still plenty for the Colts to play for down the stretch.
